We Think Heineken (AMS:HEIA) Can Stay On Top Of Its Debt

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. As with many other companies Heineken N.V. (AMS:HEIA) makes use of debt. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?

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When Is Debt Dangerous?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first thing to do when considering how much debt a business uses is to look at its cash and debt together.

What Is Heineken's Net Debt?

As you can see below, Heineken had €16.2b of debt at June 2025, down from €17.2b a year prior. On the flip side, it has €2.07b in cash leading to net debt of about €14.1b.

A Look At Heineken's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that Heineken had liabilities of €14.9b due within a year, and liabilities of €16.5b falling due after that. On the other hand, it had cash of €2.07b and €5.42b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by €23.9b.

This deficit isn't so bad because Heineken is worth a massive €40.1b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

Check out our latest analysis for Heineken

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Heineken has net debt to EBITDA of 2.5 suggesting it uses a fair bit of leverage to boost returns. On the plus side, its EBIT was 7.8 times its interest expense, and its net debt to EBITDA, was quite high, at 2.5. Notably Heineken's EBIT was pretty flat over the last year. We would prefer to see some earnings growth, because that always helps diminish debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Heineken can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. During the last three years, Heineken produced sturdy free cash flow equating to 56% of its EBIT, about what we'd expect. This cold hard cash means it can reduce its debt when it wants to.

Our View

Both Heineken's ability to to cover its interest expense with its EBIT and its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow gave us comfort that it can handle its debt. On the other hand, its level of total liabilities makes us a little less comfortable about its debt. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Heineken's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Heineken that you should be aware of.

If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.