Results: Accell Group N.V. Exceeded Expectations And The Consensus Has Updated Its Estimates

Accell Group N.V. (AMS:ACCEL) just released its annual report and things are looking bullish. It was overall a positive result, with revenues beating expectations by 3.8% to hit €1.3b. Accell Group also reported a statutory profit of €2.42, which was an impressive 69% above what the analysts had forecast. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

View our latest analysis for Accell Group

Following the latest results, Accell Group's three analysts are now forecasting revenues of €1.41b in 2021. This would be a meaningful 9.1% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be €2.40, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of €1.32b and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.21 in 2021. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.

With these upgrades, we're not surprised to see that the analysts have lifted their price target 16% to €35.27per share. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. There are some variant perceptions on Accell Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €44.00 and the most bearish at €29.30 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Accell Group's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Accell Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 9.1% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2021 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 3.0% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 8.1% annually. Accell Group is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Accell Group following these results. They also upgraded their revenue forecasts, although the latest estimates suggest that Accell Group will grow in line with the overall industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Accell Group analysts - going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Don't forget that there may still be risks. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Accell Group that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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