Earnings Miss: Tenaga Nasional Berhad Missed EPS By 27% And Analysts Are Revising Their Forecasts

Shareholders might have noticed that Tenaga Nasional Berhad (KLSE:TENAGA) filed its yearly result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.7% to RM10.96 in the past week. Statutory earnings per share disappointed, coming in -27% short of expectations, at RM0.48. Fortunately revenue performance was a lot stronger at RM64b arriving 10% ahead of predictions. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Tenaga Nasional Berhad

Taking into account the latest results, the 19 analysts covering Tenaga Nasional Berhad provided consensus estimates of RM58.6b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a small 7.9% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to soar 57% to RM0.75. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of RM57.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM0.79 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at RM11.74, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Tenaga Nasional Berhad analyst has a price target of RM13.24 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at RM7.90. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 7.9% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 8.7% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 3.5% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Tenaga Nasional Berhad is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Tenaga Nasional Berhad. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Tenaga Nasional Berhad's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Tenaga Nasional Berhad. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Tenaga Nasional Berhad going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 2 warning signs for Tenaga Nasional Berhad (of which 1 is potentially serious!) you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.