Is MISC Berhad (KLSE:MISC) A Risky Investment?

Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. As with many other companies MISC Berhad (KLSE:MISC) makes use of debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, the upside of debt is that it often represents cheap capital, especially when it replaces dilution in a company with the ability to reinvest at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.

See our latest analysis for MISC Berhad

How Much Debt Does MISC Berhad Carry?

The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that MISC Berhad had debt of RM18.0b at the end of June 2023, a reduction from RM19.2b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of RM6.55b, its net debt is less, at about RM11.4b.

A Look At MISC Berhad's Liabilities

The latest balance sheet data shows that MISC Berhad had liabilities of RM7.85b due within a year, and liabilities of RM17.6b falling due after that. Offsetting these obligations, it had cash of RM6.55b as well as receivables valued at RM6.06b due within 12 months. So its liabilities total RM12.9b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.

This deficit isn't so bad because MISC Berhad is worth RM31.4b, and thus could probably raise enough capital to shore up its balance sheet, if the need arose. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). Thus we consider debt relative to earnings both with and without depreciation and amortization expenses.

MISC Berhad's net debt is sitting at a very reasonable 2.1 times its EBITDA, while its EBIT covered its interest expense just 5.9 times last year. While that doesn't worry us too much, it does suggest the interest payments are somewhat of a burden. Importantly, MISC Berhad grew its EBIT by 87% over the last twelve months, and that growth will make it easier to handle its debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine MISC Berhad's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

Finally, a business needs free cash flow to pay off debt; accounting profits just don't cut it. So we clearly need to look at whether that EBIT is leading to corresponding free cash flow. In the last three years, MISC Berhad created free cash flow amounting to 10% of its EBIT, an uninspiring performance. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for MISC Berhad was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to convert EBIT to free cash flow. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about MISC Berhad's use of debt. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For example - MISC Berhad has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

When all is said and done, sometimes its easier to focus on companies that don't even need debt. Readers can access a list of growth stocks with zero net debt 100% free, right now.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.