Stock Analysis

The five-year decline in earnings might be taking its toll on Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad (KLSE:MPI) shareholders as stock falls 6.5% over the past week

KLSE:MPI
Source: Shutterstock

While Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad (KLSE:MPI) shareholders are probably generally happy, the stock hasn't had particularly good run recently, with the share price falling 17% in the last quarter. But in stark contrast, the returns over the last half decade have impressed. It's fair to say most would be happy with 162% the gain in that time. To some, the recent pullback wouldn't be surprising after such a fast rise. The more important question is whether the stock is too cheap or too expensive today.

While this past week has detracted from the company's five-year return, let's look at the recent trends of the underlying business and see if the gains have been in alignment.

View our latest analysis for Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad

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SWOT Analysis for Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Earnings declined over the past year.
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
Opportunity
  • Annual earnings are forecast to grow faster than the Malaysian market.
  • Good value based on P/E ratio compared to estimated Fair P/E ratio.
Threat
  • Dividends are not covered by cash flow.
  • Revenue is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad's earnings per share are down 2.3% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.

By glancing at these numbers, we'd posit that the decline in earnings per share is not representative of how the business has changed over the years. Since the change in EPS doesn't seem to correlate with the change in share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics.

The modest 1.4% dividend yield is unlikely to be propping up the share price. In contrast revenue growth of 11% per year is probably viewed as evidence that Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad is growing, a real positive. It's quite possible that management are prioritizing revenue growth over EPS growth at the moment.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
KLSE:MPI Earnings and Revenue Growth May 20th 2023

You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. We note that for Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad the TSR over the last 5 years was 188%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

We regret to report that Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad shareholders are down 16% for the year (even including dividends). Unfortunately, that's worse than the broader market decline of 1.0%. However, it could simply be that the share price has been impacted by broader market jitters. It might be worth keeping an eye on the fundamentals, in case there's a good opportunity. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 24% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. While it is well worth considering the different impacts that market conditions can have on the share price, there are other factors that are even more important. Even so, be aware that Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Malaysian exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About KLSE:MPI

Malaysian Pacific Industries Berhad

An investment holding company, engages in the manufacture, assemble, test, and sale of integrated circuits, semiconductor devices, electronic components, and lead frames in Asia, the United States, and Europe.

Undervalued with excellent balance sheet and pays a dividend.

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