Genetec Technology Berhad's (KLSE:GENETEC) Robust Earnings Are Not All Good News For Shareholders

Genetec Technology Berhad's (KLSE:GENETEC) stock rose after it released a robust earnings report. Despite the strong profit numbers, we believe that there are some deeper issues which investors should look into.

View our latest analysis for Genetec Technology Berhad

Examining Cashflow Against Genetec Technology Berhad's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. The ratio shows us how much a company's profit exceeds its FCF.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. While it's not a problem to have a positive accrual ratio, indicating a certain level of non-cash profits, a high accrual ratio is arguably a bad thing, because it indicates paper profits are not matched by cash flow. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to June 2021, Genetec Technology Berhad had an accrual ratio of 0.31. We can therefore deduce that its free cash flow fell well short of covering its statutory profit, suggesting we might want to think twice before putting a lot of weight on the latter. Over the last year it actually had negative free cash flow of RM19m, in contrast to the aforementioned profit of RM6.03m. We saw that FCF was RM1.9m a year ago though, so Genetec Technology Berhad has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. However, that's not the end of the story. We must also consider the impact of unusual items on statutory profit (and thus the accrual ratio), as well as note the ramifications of the company issuing new shares. The good news for shareholders is that Genetec Technology Berhad's accrual ratio was much better last year, so this year's poor reading might simply be a case of a short term mismatch between profit and FCF. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

Note: we always recommend investors check balance sheet strength. Click here to be taken to our balance sheet analysis of Genetec Technology Berhad.

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. As it happens, Genetec Technology Berhad issued 19% more new shares over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. To talk about net income, without noticing earnings per share, is to be distracted by the big numbers while ignoring the smaller numbers that talk to per share value. Check out Genetec Technology Berhad's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Genetec Technology Berhad's Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

We don't have any data on the company's profits from three years ago. Zooming in to the last year, we still can't talk about growth rates coherently, since it made a loss last year. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. Therefore, the dilution is having a noteworthy influence on shareholder returns.

If Genetec Technology Berhad's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

The fact that the company had unusual items boosting profit by RM514k, in the last year, probably goes some way to explain why its accrual ratio was so weak. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. When we analysed the vast majority of listed companies worldwide, we found that significant unusual items are often not repeated. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. If Genetec Technology Berhad doesn't see that contribution repeat, then all else being equal we'd expect its profit to drop over the current year.

Our Take On Genetec Technology Berhad's Profit Performance

Genetec Technology Berhad didn't back up its earnings with free cashflow, but this isn't too surprising given profits were inflated by unusual items. The dilution means the results are weaker when viewed from a per-share perspective. For the reasons mentioned above, we think that a perfunctory glance at Genetec Technology Berhad's statutory profits might make it look better than it really is on an underlying level. In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. Be aware that Genetec Technology Berhad is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis and 1 of those doesn't sit too well with us...

In this article we've looked at a number of factors that can impair the utility of profit numbers, and we've come away cautious. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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