Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's (KLSE:TOYOVEN) 25% Share Price Surge Not Quite Adding Up

Those holding Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad (KLSE:TOYOVEN) shares would be relieved that the share price has rebounded 25% in the last thirty days, but it needs to keep going to repair the recent damage it has caused to investor portfolios. Not all shareholders will be feeling jubilant, since the share price is still down a very disappointing 35% in the last twelve months.

In spite of the firm bounce in price, it's still not a stretch to say that Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's price-to-sales (or "P/S") ratio of 1.4x right now seems quite "middle-of-the-road" compared to the Chemicals industry in Malaysia, where the median P/S ratio is around 1.3x. While this might not raise any eyebrows, if the P/S ratio is not justified investors could be missing out on a potential opportunity or ignoring looming disappointment.

View our latest analysis for Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad

What Does Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's Recent Performance Look Like?

As an illustration, revenue has deteriorated at Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad over the last year, which is not ideal at all. Perhaps investors believe the recent revenue performance is enough to keep in line with the industry, which is keeping the P/S from dropping off. If not, then existing shareholders may be a little nervous about the viability of the share price.

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Do Revenue Forecasts Match The P/S Ratio?

There's an inherent assumption that a company should be matching the industry for P/S ratios like Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's to be considered reasonable.

In reviewing the last year of financials, we were disheartened to see the company's revenues fell to the tune of 13%. At least revenue has managed not to go completely backwards from three years ago in aggregate, thanks to the earlier period of growth. So it appears to us that the company has had a mixed result in terms of growing revenue over that time.

Comparing that to the industry, which is predicted to deliver 7.5% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker, based on recent medium-term annualised revenue results.

In light of this, it's curious that Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's P/S sits in line with the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are less bearish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock right now. Maintaining these prices will be difficult to achieve as a continuation of recent revenue trends is likely to weigh down the shares eventually.

The Final Word

Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's stock has a lot of momentum behind it lately, which has brought its P/S level with the rest of the industry. We'd say the price-to-sales ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad's average P/S is a bit surprising since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider industry forecast. Right now we are uncomfortable with the P/S as this revenue performance isn't likely to support a more positive sentiment for long. If recent medium-term revenue trends continue, the probability of a share price decline will become quite substantial, placing shareholders at risk.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 5 warning signs for Toyo Ventures Holdings Berhad (of which 2 are a bit concerning!) you should know about.

If strong companies turning a profit tickle your fancy, then you'll want to check out this free list of interesting companies that trade on a low P/E (but have proven they can grow earnings).

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.