Stock Analysis

The three-year earnings decline is not helping Hartalega Holdings Berhad's (KLSE:HARTA share price, as stock falls another 12% in past week

KLSE:HARTA
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Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But its virtually certain that sometimes you will buy stocks that fall short of the market average returns. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Hartalega Holdings Berhad (KLSE:HARTA) shareholders, since the share price is down 54% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 19%. The falls have accelerated recently, with the share price down 16% in the last three months.

If the past week is anything to go by, investor sentiment for Hartalega Holdings Berhad isn't positive, so let's see if there's a mismatch between fundamentals and the share price.

View our latest analysis for Hartalega Holdings Berhad

To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.

During five years of share price growth, Hartalega Holdings Berhad moved from a loss to profitability. That would generally be considered a positive, so we are surprised to see the share price is down. So given the share price is down it's worth checking some other metrics too.

With a rather small yield of just 0.1% we doubt that the stock's share price is based on its dividend. We think that the revenue decline over three years, at a rate of 68% per year, probably had some shareholders looking to sell. And that's not surprising, since it seems unlikely that EPS growth can continue for long in the absence of revenue growth.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
KLSE:HARTA Earnings and Revenue Growth September 26th 2024

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of Hartalega Holdings Berhad, it has a TSR of -48% for the last 3 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Hartalega Holdings Berhad shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 37% over the last year. And that does include the dividend. There's no doubt those recent returns are much better than the TSR loss of 6% per year over five years. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Hartalega Holdings Berhad better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 1 warning sign for Hartalega Holdings Berhad you should be aware of.

If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Malaysian exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're here to simplify it.

Discover if Hartalega Holdings Berhad might be undervalued or overvalued with our detailed analysis, featuring fair value estimates, potential risks, dividends, insider trades, and its financial condition.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.