Orgabio Holdings Berhad's (KLSE:ORGABIO) Shareholders Have More To Worry About Than Only Soft Earnings

Last week's earnings announcement from Orgabio Holdings Berhad (KLSE:ORGABIO) was disappointing to investors, with a sluggish profit figure. Our analysis has found some reasons to be concerned, beyond the weak headline numbers.

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Zooming In On Orgabio Holdings Berhad's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. In plain english, this ratio subtracts FCF from net profit, and divides that number by the company's average operating assets over that period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

Therefore, it's actually considered a good thing when a company has a negative accrual ratio, but a bad thing if its accrual ratio is positive. While having an accrual ratio above zero is of little concern, we do think it's worth noting when a company has a relatively high accrual ratio. To quote a 2014 paper by Lewellen and Resutek, "firms with higher accruals tend to be less profitable in the future".

For the year to June 2022, Orgabio Holdings Berhad had an accrual ratio of 0.40. As a general rule, that bodes poorly for future profitability. And indeed, during the period the company didn't produce any free cash flow whatsoever. In the last twelve months it actually had negative free cash flow, with an outflow of RM4.9m despite its profit of RM5.76m, mentioned above. We saw that FCF was RM7.7m a year ago though, so Orgabio Holdings Berhad has at least been able to generate positive FCF in the past. One positive for Orgabio Holdings Berhad shareholders is that it's accrual ratio was significantly better last year, providing reason to believe that it may return to stronger cash conversion in the future. Shareholders should look for improved cashflow relative to profit in the current year, if that is indeed the case.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Our Take On Orgabio Holdings Berhad's Profit Performance

As we discussed above, we think Orgabio Holdings Berhad's earnings were not supported by free cash flow, which might concern some investors. As a result, we think it may well be the case that Orgabio Holdings Berhad's underlying earnings power is lower than its statutory profit. Sadly, its EPS was down over the last twelve months. The goal of this article has been to assess how well we can rely on the statutory earnings to reflect the company's potential, but there is plenty more to consider. With this in mind, we wouldn't consider investing in a stock unless we had a thorough understanding of the risks. To help with this, we've discovered 4 warning signs (1 shouldn't be ignored!) that you ought to be aware of before buying any shares in Orgabio Holdings Berhad.

This note has only looked at a single factor that sheds light on the nature of Orgabio Holdings Berhad's profit. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.