PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad (KLSE:PETDAG) recently reported its annual numbers. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit RM38b. Statutory earnings fell 8.1% short of analyst forecasts, reaching RM0.95 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad

Following last week's earnings report, PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad's ten analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be RM38.0b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to accumulate 7.4% to RM1.02. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of RM37.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of RM1.06 in 2024. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at RM22.49, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad analyst has a price target of RM25.40 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at RM16.80. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad shareholders.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2024 expected to display 1.1% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 6.2% over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to see a revenue decline of 1.8% annually. So it's clear that despite the slowdown in growth, PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad is still expected to grow meaningfully faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Their estimates also suggest that PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad's revenue is expected to perform better than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at RM22.49, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for PETRONAS Dagangan Berhad (1 is a bit concerning!) that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.