Vistra Valuation
Is VST * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
3/6Valuation Score 3/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of VST * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: VST * (MX$2900) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$4820.83)
Significantly Below Fair Value: VST * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for VST *?
Key metric: As VST * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is VST *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 26.1x |
| Earnings | US$1.85b |
| Market Cap | US$48.36b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 4.2x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 11.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 1.8x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does VST *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 51.4x | ||
NTPC NTPC | 16.1x | 3.5% | ₹3.6t |
2082 ACWA Power | 159.2x | 16.6% | ر.س292.3b |
601985 China National Nuclear Power | 18.4x | 10.4% | CN¥188.6b |
1816 CGN Power | 11.9x | 6.2% | HK$207.5b |
VST * Vistra | 26.1x | 14.4% | Mex$48.4b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: VST * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.1x) compared to the peer average (52.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does VST *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Renewable Energy Industry?
| 18 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: VST * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.1x) compared to the Global Renewable Energy industry average (14.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is VST *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 26.1x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate VST *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$2,900.00 | Mex$3,104.03 +7.0% | 24.5% | Mex$4,725.31 | Mex$940.97 | n/a | 15 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$2,532.00 | Mex$2,841.76 +12.2% | 25.3% | Mex$4,639.98 | Mex$923.98 | n/a | 15 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$2,270.00 | Mex$2,437.88 +7.4% | 21.0% | Mex$3,091.02 | Mex$905.65 | n/a | 12 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$1,665.00 | Mex$2,115.63 +27.1% | 20.2% | Mex$2,537.21 | Mex$877.53 | n/a | 11 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$1,478.00 | Mex$2,061.01 +39.4% | 21.0% | Mex$2,477.80 | Mex$801.09 | n/a | 11 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$1,612.15 | Mex$2,031.25 +26.0% | 20.8% | Mex$2,456.15 | Mex$794.09 | n/a | 11 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$1,675.00 | Mex$1,849.12 +10.4% | 20.9% | Mex$2,256.44 | Mex$729.53 | n/a | 11 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$1,212.02 0% | 28.0% | Mex$1,628.93 | Mex$548.69 | n/a | 11 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$979.55 0% | 24.5% | Mex$1,299.40 | Mex$533.09 | n/a | 10 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$918.00 | Mex$835.35 -9.0% | 20.7% | Mex$1,056.98 | Mex$443.25 | n/a | 10 |
| Feb ’25 | n/a | Mex$732.59 0% | 13.9% | Mex$831.30 | Mex$450.29 | n/a | 10 |
| Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$683.87 0% | 14.9% | Mex$790.16 | Mex$446.61 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$683.89 0% | 14.7% | Mex$796.43 | Mex$450.15 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$668.19 0% | 13.2% | Mex$763.07 | Mex$472.38 | Mex$2,532.00 | 9 |
| Oct ’24 | n/a | Mex$620.47 0% | 12.8% | Mex$689.41 | Mex$448.12 | Mex$2,270.00 | 9 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$530.90 | Mex$574.85 +8.3% | 13.8% | Mex$671.91 | Mex$403.14 | Mex$1,665.00 | 9 |
| Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$547.87 0% | 12.1% | Mex$622.66 | Mex$403.89 | Mex$1,478.00 | 9 |
| Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$553.46 0% | 12.0% | Mex$635.53 | Mex$412.23 | Mex$1,612.15 | 9 |
| Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$574.65 0% | 12.1% | Mex$662.14 | Mex$429.50 | Mex$1,675.00 | 9 |
| May ’24 | n/a | Mex$573.24 0% | 12.1% | Mex$665.12 | Mex$431.43 | n/a | 9 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$424.50 | Mex$588.42 +38.6% | 11.3% | Mex$688.98 | Mex$446.90 | n/a | 10 |
| Mar ’24 | n/a | Mex$556.74 0% | 9.6% | Mex$643.09 | Mex$422.60 | Mex$918.00 | 10 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$438.50 | Mex$569.16 +29.8% | 9.8% | Mex$657.45 | Mex$432.04 | n/a | 10 |
| Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$611.98 0% | 10.0% | Mex$693.19 | Mex$455.52 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$600.62 0% | 9.8% | Mex$682.52 | Mex$448.52 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’23 | n/a | Mex$621.85 0% | 9.9% | Mex$695.36 | Mex$456.95 | n/a | 10 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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