Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VOLARA) Analysts Are Cutting Their Estimates: Here's What You Need To Know

There's been a major selloff in Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:VOLARA) shares in the week since it released its first-quarter report, with the stock down 22% to Mex$7.30. Revenues of US$649m came in a modest 6.5% below forecasts. Statutory losses were a relative bright spot though, with a per-share loss of US$0.038 coming in a substantial 44% smaller than what the analysts had expected. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

We've discovered 2 warning signs about Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de. View them for free.

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de from 15 analysts is for revenues of US$3.17b in 2025. If met, it would imply a modest 4.0% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Earnings are expected to tip over into lossmaking territory, with the analysts forecasting statutory losses of -US$0.14 per share in 2025. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$3.42b and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.11 in 2025. The analysts have made an abrupt about-face on Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de, administering a minor downgrade to to revenue forecasts and slashing the earnings outlook from a profit to loss.

Check out our latest analysis for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de

There was no major change to the consensus price target of Mex$21.96, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at Mex$25.60 and the most bearish at Mex$16.50 per share. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.4% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 21% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 80 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts are expecting Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de to become unprofitable next year. Sadly, they also downgraded their revenue forecasts, but the business is still expected to grow at roughly the same rate as the industry itself. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$21.96, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 2 warning signs for Controladora Vuela Compañía de Aviación. de (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.