Union Pacific Valuation
Is UNP * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
0/6Valuation Score 0/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of UNP * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: UNP * (MX$4837) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$4389.85)
Significantly Below Fair Value: UNP * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for UNP *?
Key metric: As UNP * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is UNP *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 22.4x |
| Earnings | US$6.64b |
| Market Cap | US$148.67b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 7.4x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 15x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.1x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does UNP *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 19.6x | ||
GMXT * GMéxico Transportes. de | 15.3x | 21.6% | Mex$134.2b |
CSX CSX | 19.2x | 5.7% | US$70.8b |
CNR Canadian National Railway | 18.1x | 3.9% | CA$97.0b |
NSC Norfolk Southern | 25.8x | 12.9% | US$62.5b |
UNP * Union Pacific | 22.4x | 7.2% | Mex$148.7b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: UNP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the peer average (19.6x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does UNP *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Transportation Industry?
| 8 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: UNP * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x) compared to the Global Transportation industry average (14.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is UNP *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 22.4x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate UNP *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | n/a | Mex$5,303.67 0% | 6.6% | Mex$5,837.00 | Mex$4,403.35 | n/a | 28 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$4,670.00 | Mex$5,173.61 +10.8% | 6.3% | Mex$5,684.48 | Mex$4,318.60 | n/a | 28 |
| Oct ’25 | n/a | Mex$5,154.51 0% | 6.9% | Mex$5,729.21 | Mex$4,232.92 | n/a | 27 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$4,793.20 | Mex$4,888.99 +2.0% | 6.6% | Mex$5,256.19 | Mex$3,942.14 | n/a | 27 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$4,598.00 | Mex$4,888.99 +6.3% | 6.6% | Mex$5,256.19 | Mex$3,942.14 | n/a | 27 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$4,124.92 | Mex$4,857.16 +17.8% | 7.3% | Mex$5,339.36 | Mex$3,866.44 | n/a | 27 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$3,883.67 | Mex$4,510.46 +16.1% | 7.0% | Mex$4,917.56 | Mex$3,560.99 | n/a | 27 |
| May ’25 | n/a | Mex$4,537.46 0% | 7.0% | Mex$4,972.51 | Mex$3,600.79 | n/a | 29 |
| Apr ’25 | n/a | Mex$4,302.33 0% | 8.1% | Mex$4,823.14 | Mex$3,326.30 | n/a | 28 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$4,339.50 | Mex$4,389.86 +1.2% | 8.2% | Mex$4,987.22 | Mex$3,439.46 | n/a | 28 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$4,205.00 | Mex$4,353.17 +3.5% | 9.1% | Mex$4,994.53 | Mex$3,444.50 | n/a | 28 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$4,155.80 | Mex$4,094.02 -1.5% | 9.7% | Mex$4,803.11 | Mex$3,099.88 | n/a | 28 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$3,988.55 | Mex$4,131.33 +3.6% | 9.2% | Mex$4,882.44 | Mex$3,151.08 | n/a | 28 |
| Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$4,368.40 0% | 9.0% | Mex$5,166.47 | Mex$3,334.39 | Mex$4,670.00 | 28 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$3,634.00 | Mex$4,282.77 +17.9% | 9.4% | Mex$4,959.66 | Mex$3,167.22 | n/a | 29 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$3,764.67 | Mex$4,216.22 +12.0% | 9.4% | Mex$4,859.62 | Mex$3,103.34 | Mex$4,793.20 | 30 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$3,882.25 | Mex$4,146.47 +6.8% | 9.3% | Mex$4,772.15 | Mex$3,047.48 | Mex$4,598.00 | 30 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$3,496.61 | Mex$3,736.69 +6.9% | 7.9% | Mex$4,226.66 | Mex$2,926.15 | Mex$4,124.92 | 30 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$3,408.00 | Mex$3,870.81 +13.6% | 7.7% | Mex$4,369.03 | Mex$3,024.72 | Mex$3,883.67 | 30 |
| May ’24 | Mex$3,520.06 | Mex$3,919.65 +11.4% | 7.6% | Mex$4,441.78 | Mex$3,075.08 | n/a | 29 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$3,600.75 | Mex$3,977.02 +10.4% | 7.4% | Mex$4,432.69 | Mex$3,238.58 | n/a | 27 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$3,802.04 | Mex$4,005.43 +5.3% | 6.8% | Mex$4,435.21 | Mex$3,240.42 | Mex$4,339.50 | 27 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$3,859.29 | Mex$4,133.60 +7.1% | 7.0% | Mex$4,604.82 | Mex$3,364.34 | Mex$4,205.00 | 28 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$4,028.73 | Mex$4,259.76 +5.7% | 7.7% | Mex$4,890.65 | Mex$3,462.58 | Mex$4,155.80 | 28 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$4,084.00 | Mex$4,156.37 +1.8% | 8.2% | Mex$4,847.49 | Mex$3,418.35 | Mex$3,988.55 | 28 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$3,822.00 | Mex$4,215.13 +10.3% | 7.4% | Mex$4,929.98 | Mex$3,490.42 | n/a | 28 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.