Results: Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. Confounded Analyst Expectations With A Surprise Profit

Grupo Televisa, S.A.B. (BMV:TLEVISACPO) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 8.5% to Mex$7.14 in the week after its latest first-quarter results. It looks like a credible result overall - although revenues of Mex$15b were what the analysts expected, Grupo Televisa surprised by delivering a statutory profit of Mex$0.12 per share, instead of the previously forecast loss. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Taking into account the latest results, Grupo Televisa's twelve analysts currently expect revenues in 2025 to be Mex$61.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. The loss per share is expected to greatly reduce in the near future, narrowing 66% to Mex$1.12. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of Mex$60.3b and losses of Mex$0.74 per share in 2025. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on Grupo Televisa even after this update; although they upped their revenue numbers, it came at the cost of a regrettable increase in per-share losses.

Check out our latest analysis for Grupo Televisa

The average price target rose 27% to Mex$22.93, even thoughthe analysts have been updating their forecasts to show higher revenues and higher forecast losses. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Grupo Televisa at Mex$55.00 per share, while the most bearish prices it at Mex$7.50. We would probably assign less value to the analyst forecasts in this situation, because such a wide range of estimates could imply that the future of this business is difficult to value accurately. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's also worth noting that the years of declining revenue look to have come to an end, with the forecast stauing flat to the end of 2025. Historically, Grupo Televisa's top line has shrunk approximately 8.4% annually over the past five years. Compare this against analyst estimates for the broader industry, which suggest that (in aggregate) industry revenues are expected to grow 4.0% annually. Although Grupo Televisa's revenues are expected to improve, it seems that it is still expected to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to note is the forecast of increased losses next year, suggesting all may not be well at Grupo Televisa. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though it is expected to grow slower than the wider industry. We note an upgrade to the price target, suggesting that the analysts believes the intrinsic value of the business is likely to improve over time.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Grupo Televisa going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for Grupo Televisa that you need to take into consideration.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.