Archer-Daniels-Midland Company

BMV:ADM * Stock Report

Market Cap: Mex$520.7b

Archer-Daniels-Midland Valuation

Is ADM * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ADM * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ADM * (MX$1072) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$402.67)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ADM * is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ADM *?

Key metric: As ADM * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ADM *. This is calculated by dividing ADM *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is ADM *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio14.1x
EarningsUS$1.80b
Market CapUS$25.42b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ADM *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ADM * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average17.4x
BIMBO A Grupo Bimbo. de
20.8x20.6%Mex$263.7b
FEMSA UBD Fomento Económico Mexicano. de
20.5x8.0%Mex$597.1b
AC * Arca Continental. de
15.9x8.0%Mex$299.7b
GRUMA B Gruma. de
12.2x7.0%Mex$124.6b
ADM * Archer-Daniels-Midland
14.1x3.1%Mex$25.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ADM * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the peer average (17.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ADM *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the South American Food Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No. of Companies16PE0816243240+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ADM * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x) compared to the South American Food industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ADM *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ADM * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio14.1x
Fair PE Ration/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate ADM *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ADM * forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentMex$1,072.00
Mex$1,212.31
+13.1%
8.9%Mex$1,351.73Mex$1,044.52n/a10
Nov ’25Mex$1,130.74
Mex$1,225.09
+8.3%
4.2%Mex$1,308.50Mex$1,130.06n/a10
Oct ’25Mex$1,177.08
Mex$1,223.08
+3.9%
4.5%Mex$1,314.08Mex$1,117.95n/a12
Sep ’25Mex$1,185.00
Mex$1,168.23
-1.4%
4.5%Mex$1,261.90Mex$1,073.56n/a12
Aug ’25Mex$1,165.00
Mex$1,157.42
-0.7%
4.7%Mex$1,248.22Mex$1,061.92n/a11
Jul ’25Mex$1,106.00
Mex$1,121.14
+1.4%
5.1%Mex$1,239.74Mex$1,024.13n/a11
Jun ’25n/a
Mex$1,072.20
0%
6.5%Mex$1,257.56Mex$968.66n/a15
May ’25Mex$1,040.00
Mex$1,085.19
+4.3%
7.5%Mex$1,259.32Mex$970.01n/a16
Apr ’25n/a
Mex$1,079.79
0%
9.5%Mex$1,257.10Mex$955.39n/a14
Mar ’25Mex$906.00
Mex$1,156.76
+27.7%
17.9%Mex$1,683.02Mex$939.76n/a15
Feb ’25Mex$970.00
Mex$1,156.76
+19.3%
17.9%Mex$1,683.02Mex$939.76n/a15
Jan ’25Mex$1,224.00
Mex$1,539.72
+25.8%
14.1%Mex$1,989.69Mex$1,200.68n/a15
Dec ’24n/a
Mex$1,603.87
0%
14.7%Mex$2,040.75Mex$1,231.49n/a15
Nov ’24Mex$1,280.86
Mex$1,645.88
+28.5%
14.5%Mex$2,094.21Mex$1,263.75Mex$1,130.7415
Oct ’24n/a
Mex$1,713.53
0%
12.7%Mex$2,068.97Mex$1,237.85Mex$1,177.0815
Sep ’24Mex$1,370.00
Mex$1,658.97
+21.1%
12.7%Mex$2,003.09Mex$1,198.43Mex$1,185.0015
Aug ’24Mex$1,422.93
Mex$1,623.65
+14.1%
12.8%Mex$1,959.09Mex$1,172.11Mex$1,165.0015
Jul ’24Mex$1,262.52
Mex$1,609.84
+27.5%
14.2%Mex$2,003.88Mex$1,198.90Mex$1,106.0015
Jun ’24Mex$1,287.00
Mex$1,648.64
+28.1%
14.8%Mex$2,053.75Mex$1,228.74n/a14
May ’24Mex$1,404.37
Mex$1,732.86
+23.4%
13.7%Mex$2,111.34Mex$1,263.19Mex$1,040.0015
Apr ’24Mex$1,435.00
Mex$1,866.19
+30.0%
12.7%Mex$2,196.00Mex$1,313.84n/a14
Mar ’24n/a
Mex$1,866.19
0%
12.7%Mex$2,196.00Mex$1,313.84Mex$906.0014
Feb ’24n/a
Mex$1,866.19
0%
12.7%Mex$2,196.00Mex$1,313.84Mex$970.0014
Jan ’24Mex$1,809.00
Mex$1,962.05
+8.5%
12.2%Mex$2,317.22Mex$1,386.37Mex$1,224.0015
Dec ’23Mex$1,770.00
Mex$1,942.74
+9.8%
12.0%Mex$2,321.08Mex$1,388.68n/a14
Nov ’23Mex$1,902.00
Mex$1,942.74
+2.1%
12.0%Mex$2,321.08Mex$1,388.68Mex$1,280.8614

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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