Exxon Mobil Valuation
Is XOM * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of XOM * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: XOM * (MX$2456.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$3439.28)
Significantly Below Fair Value: XOM * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for XOM *?
Key metric: As XOM * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is XOM *'s PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 15.7x |
| Earnings | US$33.70b |
| Market Cap | US$528.77b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.6x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 7.7x |
| PEG Ratio | 3.2x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does XOM *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 13.1x | ||
CVX Chevron | 17.3x | 7.1% | US$290.1b |
SHEL Shell | 13x | 5.5% | UK£160.9b |
857 PetroChina | 5.9x | -3.8% | HK$1.5t |
2222 Saudi Arabian Oil | 16.4x | 1.3% | ر.س6.7t |
XOM * Exxon Mobil | 15.7x | 4.9% | Mex$528.8b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: XOM * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the peer average (13.1x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does XOM *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?
| 27 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: XOM * is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.7x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is XOM *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 15.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate XOM *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | Mex$2,456.04 | Mex$2,688.68 +9.5% | 8.1% | Mex$3,047.93 | Mex$2,147.87 | n/a | 26 |
| Nov ’25 | Mex$2,360.00 | Mex$2,598.70 +10.1% | 8.1% | Mex$2,958.04 | Mex$2,084.52 | n/a | 26 |
| Oct ’25 | Mex$2,315.71 | Mex$2,573.13 +11.1% | 7.8% | Mex$2,933.51 | Mex$2,165.68 | n/a | 25 |
| Sep ’25 | Mex$2,349.98 | Mex$2,583.04 +9.9% | 8.5% | Mex$3,057.53 | Mex$2,142.22 | n/a | 25 |
| Aug ’25 | Mex$2,193.00 | Mex$2,378.97 +8.5% | 8.7% | Mex$2,744.42 | Mex$1,973.11 | n/a | 25 |
| Jul ’25 | Mex$2,107.00 | Mex$2,404.73 +14.1% | 8.4% | Mex$2,793.56 | Mex$2,067.96 | n/a | 23 |
| Jun ’25 | Mex$1,983.00 | Mex$2,224.24 +12.2% | 8.6% | Mex$2,537.02 | Mex$1,836.00 | n/a | 23 |
| May ’25 | Mex$2,035.00 | Mex$2,237.45 +9.9% | 9.1% | Mex$2,569.02 | Mex$1,883.95 | n/a | 24 |
| Apr ’25 | Mex$1,951.00 | Mex$2,072.50 +6.2% | 8.2% | Mex$2,477.01 | Mex$1,745.54 | n/a | 23 |
| Mar ’25 | Mex$1,804.00 | Mex$2,120.17 +17.5% | 9.2% | Mex$2,543.89 | Mex$1,792.68 | n/a | 24 |
| Feb ’25 | Mex$1,779.99 | Mex$2,150.75 +20.8% | 9.1% | Mex$2,580.50 | Mex$1,818.47 | n/a | 24 |
| Jan ’25 | Mex$1,713.48 | Mex$2,140.49 +24.9% | 9.7% | Mex$2,546.13 | Mex$1,782.29 | n/a | 24 |
| Dec ’24 | Mex$1,763.81 | Mex$2,185.31 +23.9% | 9.0% | Mex$2,579.55 | Mex$1,891.67 | n/a | 24 |
| Nov ’24 | Mex$1,860.06 | Mex$2,262.16 +21.6% | 9.9% | Mex$2,671.85 | Mex$1,959.35 | Mex$2,360.00 | 24 |
| Oct ’24 | Mex$2,093.00 | Mex$2,169.21 +3.6% | 9.8% | Mex$2,633.28 | Mex$1,843.30 | Mex$2,315.71 | 23 |
| Sep ’24 | Mex$1,944.13 | Mex$2,088.85 +7.4% | 9.2% | Mex$2,495.33 | Mex$1,794.59 | Mex$2,349.98 | 23 |
| Aug ’24 | Mex$1,819.97 | Mex$2,022.73 +11.1% | 9.7% | Mex$2,435.48 | Mex$1,668.14 | Mex$2,193.00 | 23 |
| Jul ’24 | Mex$1,847.98 | Mex$2,128.81 +15.2% | 9.2% | Mex$2,499.45 | Mex$1,677.71 | Mex$2,107.00 | 24 |
| Jun ’24 | Mex$1,828.37 | Mex$2,213.69 +21.1% | 9.8% | Mex$2,573.24 | Mex$1,727.24 | Mex$1,983.00 | 24 |
| May ’24 | Mex$2,145.00 | Mex$2,257.90 +5.3% | 10.6% | Mex$2,653.43 | Mex$1,757.00 | Mex$2,035.00 | 26 |
| Apr ’24 | Mex$1,970.00 | Mex$2,265.07 +15.0% | 10.2% | Mex$2,697.51 | Mex$1,786.19 | Mex$1,951.00 | 27 |
| Mar ’24 | Mex$2,039.98 | Mex$2,282.41 +11.9% | 10.5% | Mex$2,750.54 | Mex$1,821.30 | Mex$1,804.00 | 27 |
| Feb ’24 | Mex$2,180.50 | Mex$2,276.45 +4.4% | 10.2% | Mex$2,644.18 | Mex$1,824.86 | Mex$1,779.99 | 27 |
| Jan ’24 | Mex$2,155.00 | Mex$2,245.98 +4.2% | 13.8% | Mex$2,689.29 | Mex$1,500.55 | Mex$1,713.48 | 27 |
| Dec ’23 | Mex$2,137.07 | Mex$2,189.99 +2.5% | 13.7% | Mex$2,643.49 | Mex$1,474.99 | Mex$1,763.81 | 27 |
| Nov ’23 | Mex$2,190.00 | Mex$2,198.70 +0.4% | 13.4% | Mex$2,681.91 | Mex$1,518.43 | Mex$1,860.06 | 27 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
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