Marathon Petroleum Valuation
Is MPC * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
2/6Valuation Score 2/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of MPC * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: MPC * (MX$3500) is trading above our estimate of fair value (MX$3126.26)
Significantly Below Fair Value: MPC * is trading above our estimate of fair value.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for MPC *?
Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.
What is MPC *'s n/a Ratio? | |
---|---|
n/a | 0x |
n/a | n/a |
Market Cap | US$71.94b |
Key Statistics | |
---|---|
Enterprise Value/Revenue | 0.7x |
Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 5.7x |
PEG Ratio | -0.3x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does MPC *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?
Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
---|---|---|---|
Peer Average | 10.5x | ||
PSX Phillips 66 | 9.6x | -4.8% | US$67.5b |
VLO Valero Energy | 6.2x | -24.4% | US$55.2b |
ADNOCGAS ADNOC Gas | 14.4x | 3.3% | د.إ228.7b |
VISTA A Vista Energy. de | 11.9x | 26.1% | Mex$70.6b |
MPC * Marathon Petroleum | 7.4x | -21.8% | Mex$71.9b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: MPC * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the peer average (10.2x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does MPC *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: MPC * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.4x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (9.5x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is MPC *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
Fair Ratio | |
---|---|
Current PE Ratio | 7.4x |
Fair PE Ratio | n/a |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate MPC *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Current | n/a | Mex$3,651.79 0% | 11.5% | Mex$4,266.64 | Mex$2,433.18 | n/a | 17 |
Apr ’25 | Mex$3,445.00 | Mex$3,109.11 -9.8% | 12.4% | Mex$3,775.35 | Mex$2,361.67 | n/a | 17 |
Mar ’25 | Mex$2,964.00 | Mex$2,929.41 -1.2% | 7.2% | Mex$3,324.36 | Mex$2,420.82 | n/a | 18 |
Feb ’25 | Mex$2,863.06 | Mex$2,909.23 +1.6% | 9.3% | Mex$3,200.82 | Mex$2,030.63 | n/a | 18 |
Jan ’25 | n/a | Mex$2,804.97 0% | 10.0% | Mex$3,280.88 | Mex$2,026.93 | n/a | 17 |
Dec ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,777.20 0% | 9.9% | Mex$3,285.09 | Mex$2,029.53 | n/a | 17 |
Nov ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,864.64 0% | 8.9% | Mex$3,402.15 | Mex$2,244.35 | n/a | 17 |
Oct ’24 | Mex$2,680.70 | Mex$2,806.48 +4.7% | 8.6% | Mex$3,165.35 | Mex$2,228.12 | n/a | 17 |
Sep ’24 | Mex$2,497.78 | Mex$2,618.99 +4.9% | 7.4% | Mex$2,854.25 | Mex$2,153.50 | n/a | 17 |
Aug ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,432.71 0% | 8.7% | Mex$2,782.11 | Mex$1,854.74 | n/a | 18 |
Jul ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,428.12 0% | 9.7% | Mex$2,824.72 | Mex$1,883.15 | n/a | 18 |
Jun ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,509.16 0% | 10.2% | Mex$2,896.31 | Mex$1,930.87 | n/a | 18 |
May ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,684.31 0% | 6.8% | Mex$2,958.22 | Mex$2,205.22 | n/a | 18 |
Apr ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,720.90 0% | 7.6% | Mex$2,986.35 | Mex$2,226.19 | Mex$3,445.00 | 18 |
Mar ’24 | Mex$2,269.98 | Mex$2,604.75 +14.7% | 8.4% | Mex$3,072.47 | Mex$2,141.42 | Mex$2,964.00 | 17 |
Feb ’24 | Mex$2,301.48 | Mex$2,604.75 +13.2% | 8.4% | Mex$3,072.47 | Mex$2,141.42 | Mex$2,863.06 | 17 |
Jan ’24 | n/a | Mex$2,562.64 0% | 6.5% | Mex$2,922.51 | Mex$2,240.59 | n/a | 17 |
Dec ’23 | n/a | Mex$2,559.50 0% | 7.4% | Mex$2,954.84 | Mex$2,220.96 | n/a | 17 |
Nov ’23 | Mex$2,340.00 | Mex$2,431.35 +3.9% | 10.4% | Mex$2,957.99 | Mex$1,833.95 | n/a | 17 |
Oct ’23 | Mex$1,995.58 | Mex$2,400.40 +20.3% | 10.0% | Mex$2,720.45 | Mex$1,860.31 | Mex$2,680.70 | 16 |
Sep ’23 | Mex$1,955.48 | Mex$2,369.51 +21.2% | 9.2% | Mex$2,719.52 | Mex$1,873.45 | Mex$2,497.78 | 16 |
Aug ’23 | n/a | Mex$2,365.78 0% | 10.9% | Mex$2,667.54 | Mex$1,785.20 | n/a | 17 |
Jul ’23 | n/a | Mex$2,324.95 0% | 12.4% | Mex$2,718.17 | Mex$1,751.71 | n/a | 17 |
Jun ’23 | Mex$2,044.97 | Mex$2,131.76 +4.2% | 10.1% | Mex$2,460.20 | Mex$1,712.30 | n/a | 16 |
May ’23 | n/a | Mex$2,012.64 0% | 9.0% | Mex$2,346.28 | Mex$1,775.01 | n/a | 17 |
Apr ’23 | Mex$1,730.00 | Mex$1,742.33 +0.7% | 10.4% | Mex$2,244.81 | Mex$1,390.59 | n/a | 17 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.