Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. Just Recorded A 16% EPS Beat: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Next

Shareholders of Grupo Comercial Chedraui, S.A.B. de C.V. (BMV:CHDRAUIB) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to Mex$129 following its latest first-quarter results. Revenues were Mex$65b, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of Mex$1.99 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 16%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's seven analysts is for revenues of Mex$278.8b in 2024. This reflects a satisfactory 5.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to rise 2.5% to Mex$8.58. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of Mex$279.5b and earnings per share (EPS) of Mex$8.58 in 2024. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of Mex$142, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de analyst has a price target of Mex$160 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at Mex$120. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2024 being well below the historical 19% p.a. growth over the last five years. Compare this to the 6 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 7.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at Mex$142, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also see our analysis of Grupo Comercial Chedraui. de's Board and CEO remuneration and experience, and whether company insiders have been buying stock.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.