Harley-Davidson Valuation

Is HOG * undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of HOG * when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: HOG * (MX$650) is trading below our estimate of fair value (MX$1137.15)

Significantly Below Fair Value: HOG * is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for HOG *?

Key metric: As HOG * is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for HOG *. This is calculated by dividing HOG *'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is HOG *'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	7.3x
Earnings	US$637.44m
Market Cap	US$4.66b

HOG * key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.9x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.9x
PEG Ratio	3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does HOG *'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for HOG * vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	16.4x
603529 AIMA Technology Group	17.2x	18.3%	CN¥32.3b
689009 Ninebot	26x	27.6%	CN¥30.9b
1585 Yadea Group Holdings	13.7x	16.0%	HK$36.5b
7272 Yamaha Motor	8.7x	11.8%	JP¥1.3t
HOG * Harley-Davidson	7.3x	2.4%	Mex$4.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: HOG * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the peer average (17x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does HOG *'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Auto Industry?

2 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

2 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: HOG * is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (7.3x) compared to the Global Auto industry average (13x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is HOG *'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

HOG * PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	7.3x
Fair PE Ratio	n/a

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate HOG *'s Price-To-Earnings Fair Ratio for valuation analysis.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Insufficient data to show price forecast.

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