Stock Analysis

Positive earnings growth hasn't been enough to get Lombard Bank Malta (MTSE:LOM) shareholders a favorable return over the last five years

MTSE:LOM
Source: Shutterstock

Lombard Bank Malta p.l.c. (MTSE:LOM) shareholders should be happy to see the share price up 12% in the last week. But that doesn't change the fact that the returns over the last five years have been less than pleasing. You would have done a lot better buying an index fund, since the stock has dropped 27% in that half decade.

The recent uptick of 12% could be a positive sign of things to come, so let's take a look at historical fundamentals.

See our latest analysis for Lombard Bank Malta

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the unfortunate half decade during which the share price slipped, Lombard Bank Malta actually saw its earnings per share (EPS) improve by 9.8% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.

Due to the lack of correlation between the EPS growth and the falling share price, it's worth taking a look at other metrics to try to understand the share price movement.

Revenue is actually up 4.5% over the time period. So it seems one might have to take closer look at the fundamentals to understand why the share price languishes. After all, there may be an opportunity.

The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
MTSE:LOM Earnings and Revenue Growth September 13th 2023

We're pleased to report that the CEO is remunerated more modestly than most CEOs at similarly capitalized companies. But while CEO remuneration is always worth checking, the really important question is whether the company can grow earnings going forward. Dive deeper into the earnings by checking this interactive graph of Lombard Bank Malta's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About The Total Shareholder Return (TSR)?

We've already covered Lombard Bank Malta's share price action, but we should also mention its total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Lombard Bank Malta's TSR of was a loss of 24% for the 5 years. That wasn't as bad as its share price return, because it has paid dividends.

A Different Perspective

Lombard Bank Malta shareholders are down 12% for the year, but the market itself is up 3.9%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4% per year over five years. Generally speaking long term share price weakness can be a bad sign, though contrarian investors might want to research the stock in hope of a turnaround. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Lombard Bank Malta better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 3 warning signs for Lombard Bank Malta you should be aware of, and 1 of them is a bit concerning.

Of course Lombard Bank Malta may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Maltese exchanges.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether Lombard Bank Malta is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.