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Despite delivering investors losses of 11% over the past 5 years, Socfinasia (BDL:SCFNS) has been growing its earnings
This week we saw the Socfinasia S.A. (BDL:SCFNS) share price climb by 12%. It's not great that the stock is down 30% over the last five years. But the market returned an even less impressive return of 26%.
While the last five years has been tough for Socfinasia shareholders, this past week has shown signs of promise. So let's look at the longer term fundamentals and see if they've been the driver of the negative returns.
See our latest analysis for Socfinasia
To quote Buffett, 'Ships will sail around the world but the Flat Earth Society will flourish. There will continue to be wide discrepancies between price and value in the marketplace...' One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
While the share price declined over five years, Socfinasia actually managed to increase EPS by an average of 4.2% per year. Given the share price reaction, one might suspect that EPS is not a good guide to the business performance during the period (perhaps due to a one-off loss or gain). Or possibly, the market was previously very optimistic, so the stock has disappointed, despite improving EPS.
Based on these numbers, we'd venture that the market may have been over-optimistic about forecast growth, half a decade ago. Having said that, we might get a better idea of what's going on with the stock by looking at other metrics.
We note that the dividend has fallen in the last five years, so that may have contributed to the share price decline. The revenue decline of about 4.8% per year might also encourage sellers.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
Take a more thorough look at Socfinasia's financial health with this free report on its balance sheet.
What About Dividends?
As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Socfinasia's TSR for the last 5 years was -11%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
We're pleased to report that Socfinasia shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 19% over one year. And that does include the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 2% per year over the last half decade. This makes us a little wary, but the business might have turned around its fortunes. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Socfinasia better, we need to consider many other factors. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Socfinasia (1 doesn't sit too well with us) that you should be aware of.
If you would prefer to check out another company -- one with potentially superior financials -- then do not miss this free list of companies that have proven they can grow earnings.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on LU exchanges.
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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About BDL:SCFNS
Socfinasia
Manages a portfolio of tropical oil palm and rubber plantations in Southeast Asia.
Outstanding track record with flawless balance sheet.
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