Stock Analysis

A Look At The Fair Value Of SK hynix Inc. (KRX:000660)

KOSE:A000660
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Key Insights

  • The projected fair value for SK hynix is ₩219,263 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
  • SK hynix's ₩221,000 share price indicates it is trading at similar levels as its fair value estimate
  • Analyst price target for A000660 is ₩239,750, which is 9.3% above our fair value estimate

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of SK hynix Inc. (KRX:000660) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. One way to achieve this is by employing the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Believe it or not, it's not too difficult to follow, as you'll see from our example!

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. Anyone interested in learning a bit more about intrinsic value should have a read of the Simply Wall St analysis model.

See our latest analysis for SK hynix

The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. In the first stage we need to estimate the cash flows to the business over the next ten years. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, and so the sum of these future cash flows is then discounted to today's value:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) estimate

2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033
Levered FCF (₩, Millions) ₩13t ₩17t ₩19t ₩16t ₩14t ₩13t ₩13t ₩13t ₩13t ₩13t
Growth Rate Estimate Source Analyst x19 Analyst x19 Analyst x12 Analyst x1 Analyst x1 Est @ -5.19% Est @ -2.89% Est @ -1.28% Est @ -0.15% Est @ 0.64%
Present Value (₩, Millions) Discounted @ 10% ₩12.0m ₩14.3m ₩14.1m ₩10.6m ₩8.49m ₩7.29m ₩6.42m ₩5.75m ₩5.20m ₩4.74m

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = ₩89t

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.5%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 10%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF2033 × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = ₩13t× (1 + 2.5%) ÷ (10%– 2.5%) = ₩166t

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)10= ₩166t÷ ( 1 + 10%)10= ₩62t

The total value, or equity value, is then the sum of the present value of the future cash flows, which in this case is ₩151t. To get the intrinsic value per share, we divide this by the total number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of ₩221k, the company appears around fair value at the time of writing. The assumptions in any calculation have a big impact on the valuation, so it is better to view this as a rough estimate, not precise down to the last cent.

dcf
KOSE:A000660 Discounted Cash Flow June 14th 2024

Important Assumptions

We would point out that the most important inputs to a discounted cash flow are the discount rate and of course the actual cash flows. You don't have to agree with these inputs, I recommend redoing the calculations yourself and playing with them. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at SK hynix as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 10%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.473. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

SWOT Analysis for SK hynix

Strength
  • Debt is not viewed as a risk.
Weakness
  • Dividend is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the Semiconductor market.
Opportunity
  • Expected to breakeven next year.
  • Has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on current free cash flows.
  • Good value based on P/S ratio compared to estimated Fair P/S ratio.
Threat
  • Paying a dividend but company is unprofitable.

Moving On:

Valuation is only one side of the coin in terms of building your investment thesis, and it is only one of many factors that you need to assess for a company. The DCF model is not a perfect stock valuation tool. Rather it should be seen as a guide to "what assumptions need to be true for this stock to be under/overvalued?" For example, changes in the company's cost of equity or the risk free rate can significantly impact the valuation. For SK hynix, there are three relevant items you should further examine:

  1. Financial Health: Does A000660 have a healthy balance sheet? Take a look at our free balance sheet analysis with six simple checks on key factors like leverage and risk.
  2. Future Earnings: How does A000660's growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
  3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. Simply Wall St updates its DCF calculation for every South Korean stock every day, so if you want to find the intrinsic value of any other stock just search here.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether SK hynix is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Valuation is complex, but we're helping make it simple.

Find out whether SK hynix is potentially over or undervalued by checking out our comprehensive analysis, which includes fair value estimates, risks and warnings, dividends, insider transactions and financial health.

View the Free Analysis

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com