Is Songwon Industrial (KRX:004430) A Risky Investment?

Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously said that 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. We can see that Songwon Industrial Co., Ltd. (KRX:004430) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.

What Risk Does Debt Bring?

Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Ultimately, if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt, shareholders could walk away with nothing. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. The first step when considering a company's debt levels is to consider its cash and debt together.

Check out our latest analysis for Songwon Industrial

How Much Debt Does Songwon Industrial Carry?

As you can see below, Songwon Industrial had ₩227.4b of debt at September 2020, down from ₩265.1b a year prior. However, it also had ₩79.8b in cash, and so its net debt is ₩147.6b.

How Strong Is Songwon Industrial's Balance Sheet?

According to the last reported balance sheet, Songwon Industrial had liabilities of ₩292.6b due within 12 months, and liabilities of ₩157.1b due beyond 12 months. Offsetting this, it had ₩79.8b in cash and ₩128.7b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So it has liabilities totalling ₩241.1b more than its cash and near-term receivables, combined.

This deficit is considerable relative to its market capitalization of ₩351.6b, so it does suggest shareholders should keep an eye on Songwon Industrial's use of debt. This suggests shareholders would be heavily diluted if the company needed to shore up its balance sheet in a hurry.

We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).

Songwon Industrial's net debt of 1.6 times EBITDA suggests graceful use of debt. And the fact that its trailing twelve months of EBIT was 8.5 times its interest expenses harmonizes with that theme. On the other hand, Songwon Industrial saw its EBIT drop by 4.8% in the last twelve months. That sort of decline, if sustained, will obviously make debt harder to handle. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Songwon Industrial's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.

But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the most recent three years, Songwon Industrial recorded free cash flow worth 78% of its EBIT, which is around normal, given free cash flow excludes interest and tax. This free cash flow puts the company in a good position to pay down debt, when appropriate.

Our View

When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Songwon Industrial was the fact that it seems able to convert EBIT to free cash flow confidently. But the other factors we noted above weren't so encouraging. For instance it seems like it has to struggle a bit to handle its total liabilities. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Songwon Industrial's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. For instance, we've identified 2 warning signs for Songwon Industrial that you should be aware of.

At the end of the day, it's often better to focus on companies that are free from net debt. You can access our special list of such companies (all with a track record of profit growth). It's free.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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