Howard Marks put it nicely when he said that, rather than worrying about share price volatility, 'The possibility of permanent loss is the risk I worry about... and every practical investor I know worries about.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. We can see that Kyung Nong Corporation (KRX:002100) does use debt in its business. But the more important question is: how much risk is that debt creating?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. By replacing dilution, though, debt can be an extremely good tool for businesses that need capital to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
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What Is Kyung Nong's Net Debt?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Kyung Nong had debt of ₩125.7b at the end of September 2020, a reduction from ₩139.9b over a year. However, because it has a cash reserve of ₩8.93b, its net debt is less, at about ₩116.8b.
How Strong Is Kyung Nong's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Kyung Nong had liabilities of ₩158.9b falling due within a year, and liabilities of ₩39.1b due beyond that. Offsetting this, it had ₩8.93b in cash and ₩122.4b in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by ₩66.8b.
Kyung Nong has a market capitalization of ₩238.5b, so it could very likely raise cash to ameliorate its balance sheet, if the need arose. But we definitely want to keep our eyes open to indications that its debt is bringing too much risk.
We measure a company's debt load relative to its earnings power by looking at its net debt divided by its earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) and by calculating how easily its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) cover its interest expense (interest cover). This way, we consider both the absolute quantum of the debt, as well as the interest rates paid on it.
With a net debt to EBITDA ratio of 5.5, it's fair to say Kyung Nong does have a significant amount of debt. But the good news is that it boasts fairly comforting interest cover of 5.1 times, suggesting it can responsibly service its obligations. Notably, Kyung Nong's EBIT launched higher than Elon Musk, gaining a whopping 133% on last year. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But you can't view debt in total isolation; since Kyung Nong will need earnings to service that debt. So if you're keen to discover more about its earnings, it might be worth checking out this graph of its long term earnings trend.
Finally, a company can only pay off debt with cold hard cash, not accounting profits. So it's worth checking how much of that EBIT is backed by free cash flow. Over the last three years, Kyung Nong reported free cash flow worth 6.2% of its EBIT, which is really quite low. For us, cash conversion that low sparks a little paranoia about is ability to extinguish debt.
Our View
When it comes to the balance sheet, the standout positive for Kyung Nong was the fact that it seems able to grow its EBIT confidently. However, our other observations weren't so heartening. To be specific, it seems about as good at managing its debt, based on its EBITDA, as wet socks are at keeping your feet warm. Looking at all this data makes us feel a little cautious about Kyung Nong's debt levels. While debt does have its upside in higher potential returns, we think shareholders should definitely consider how debt levels might make the stock more risky. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. Be aware that Kyung Nong is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 2 of those are a bit unpleasant...
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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About KOSE:A002100
Kyung Nong
Engages in the manufacture and sale of agricultural chemicals in South Korea.
Flawless balance sheet established dividend payer.