ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) Just Reported Half-Year Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

As you might know, ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) recently reported its half-yearly numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥1.1t were in line with what the analysts predicted, ANA Holdings surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥172 per share, modestly greater than expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

See our latest analysis for ANA Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from ANA Holdings' 13 analysts is for revenues of JP¥2.21t in 2025. This reflects a credible 2.5% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to drop 14% to JP¥264 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥2.20t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥260 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,382, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ANA Holdings at JP¥3,900 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,900. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting ANA Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. We would highlight that ANA Holdings' revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.1% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 7.0% p.a. growth over the last five years. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than ANA Holdings.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ANA Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ANA Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You can also see whether ANA Holdings is carrying too much debt, and whether its balance sheet is healthy, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.