ANA Holdings Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) came out with its quarterly results last week, and we wanted to see how the business is performing and what industry forecasters think of the company following this report. Revenues were in line with forecasts, at JP¥517b, although statutory earnings per share came in 14% below what the analysts expected, at JP¥52.57 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on ANA Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for ANA Holdings

Following the latest results, ANA Holdings' 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥2.22t in 2025. This would be an okay 5.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 18% to JP¥264 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥2.21t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥264 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,452, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. Currently, the most bullish analyst values ANA Holdings at JP¥4,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥3,000. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting ANA Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 6.7% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.8% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 6.2% per year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that ANA Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have estimates - from multiple ANA Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 1 warning sign for ANA Holdings that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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