ANA Holdings Inc. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Predictions

Shareholders might have noticed that ANA Holdings Inc. (TSE:9202) filed its annual result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 2.2% to JP¥3,000 in the past week. Revenues were JP¥2.1t, approximately in line with expectations, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) performed substantially better. EPS of JP¥335 were also better than expected, beating analyst predictions by 13%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for ANA Holdings

After the latest results, the twelve analysts covering ANA Holdings are now predicting revenues of JP¥2.19t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a reasonable 6.4% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to decline 19% to JP¥270 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥2.20t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥280 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,563, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on ANA Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,300 and the most bearish at JP¥3,200 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. For example, we noticed that ANA Holdings' rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with revenues forecast to exhibit 6.4% growth to the end of 2025 on an annualised basis. That is well above its historical decline of 1.2% a year over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 9.1% per year. So although ANA Holdings' revenue growth is expected to improve, it is still expected to grow slower than the industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for ANA Holdings. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that ANA Holdings' revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on ANA Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for ANA Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

It is also worth noting that we have found 2 warning signs for ANA Holdings (1 makes us a bit uncomfortable!) that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.