Seino Holdings Co., Ltd. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Investors in Seino Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9076) had a good week, as its shares rose 3.2% to close at JP¥2,484 following the release of its half-year results. Results overall were not great, with earnings of JP¥38.25 per share falling drastically short of analyst expectations. Meanwhile revenues hit JP¥332b and were slightly better than forecasts. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on Seino Holdings after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for Seino Holdings

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Seino Holdings' seven analysts is for revenues of JP¥707.4b in 2025. This would reflect a credible 7.4% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to jump 44% to JP¥116. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥697.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥115 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥2,506. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on Seino Holdings, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥2,900 and the most bearish at JP¥2,250 per share. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting Seino Holdings is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The analysts are definitely expecting Seino Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 1.4% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 2.5% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Seino Holdings to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Seino Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple Seino Holdings analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

It is also worth noting that we have found 1 warning sign for Seino Holdings that you need to take into consideration.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.