Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9064) First-Quarter Results Just Came Out: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Yamato Holdings Co., Ltd. (TSE:9064) missed earnings with its latest quarterly results, disappointing overly-optimistic forecasters. Revenues missed expectations somewhat, coming in at JP¥406b, but statutory earnings fell catastrophically short, with a loss of JP¥29.49 some 76% larger than what the analysts had predicted. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Yamato Holdings

Following the latest results, Yamato Holdings' ten analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥1.79t in 2025. This would be a credible 2.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 11% to JP¥89.53. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥1.80t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥95.69 in 2025. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a minor downgrade to their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,133, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Yamato Holdings analyst has a price target of JP¥2,900 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥1,650. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Yamato Holdings' past performance and to peers in the same industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Yamato Holdings' growth to accelerate, with the forecast 3.8% annualised growth to the end of 2025 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 2.2% per annum over the past five years. Other similar companies in the industry (with analyst coverage) are also forecast to grow their revenue at 4.0% per year. Yamato Holdings is expected to grow at about the same rate as its industry, so it's not clear that we can draw any conclusions from its growth relative to competitors.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Yamato Holdings. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Yamato Holdings. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Yamato Holdings going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You should always think about risks though. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Yamato Holdings you should be aware of.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com