Seibu Holdings (TSE:9024): Valuation Check After Completing Its Substantial November 2025 Share Buyback

Seibu Holdings (TSE:9024) just wrapped up a sizeable share buyback in November 2025. This move tightens the share count and puts capital allocation squarely in focus for investors.

See our latest analysis for Seibu Holdings.

The November buyback comes after a volatile few months, with a roughly 10% 1 month share price return decline and an 8.8% 3 month share price return drop. However, momentum over the year remains strong, backed by a 50% year to date share price return and a 63% 1 year total shareholder return that underlines investors warming to the story.

If Seibu’s move has you thinking more broadly about where capital is quietly compounding, now is a good time to explore fast growing stocks with high insider ownership.

But with Seibu trading above consensus targets despite shrinking earnings, is the market underestimating the long term power of its asset base and buybacks, or already baking in years of recovery driven growth?

Price-to-Earnings of 6.3x: Is it justified?

On a price-to-earnings multiple of 6.3x against a last close of ¥4,931, Seibu looks inexpensive relative to both the broader Japanese market and its transport peers.

The price-to-earnings ratio compares what investors are paying today for each unit of current earnings. This measure is particularly relevant for an established, cash generative transportation and leisure group like Seibu.

Here, the market is assigning Seibu a 6.3x multiple, noticeably below the Japanese market at 14.1x and the transportation industry at around 11.8x. This is despite the company recently delivering strong earnings growth and improved profit margins. Against an estimated fair price-to-earnings ratio of 6.9x, that discount suggests room for the multiple to rise if profitability proves more durable than current forecasts imply.

Compared to peers with similar business models, this valuation gap is stark. Seibu is trading at a meaningful discount to both its sector and the level our fair ratio indicates the market could ultimately gravitate toward.

Explore the SWS fair ratio for Seibu Holdings

Result: Price-to-Earnings of 6.3x (UNDERVALUED)

However, shrinking revenue and net income, alongside shares trading above analyst targets, could quickly reverse sentiment if expectations for a recovery prove too optimistic.

Find out about the key risks to this Seibu Holdings narrative.

Another View: Our DCF Model Flags Overvaluation

While the 6.3x earnings multiple hints at value, our DCF model tells a very different story. It places fair value closer to ¥753 per share, which implies Seibu may be significantly overvalued at ¥4,931. Are investors leaning too heavily on near term momentum and buybacks?

Look into how the SWS DCF model arrives at its fair value.

Simply Wall St performs a discounted cash flow (DCF) on every stock in the world every day (check out Seibu Holdings for example). We show the entire calculation in full. You can track the result in your watchlist or portfolio and be alerted when this changes, or use our stock screener to discover 906 undervalued stocks based on their cash flows. If you save a screener we even alert you when new companies match - so you never miss a potential opportunity.

Build Your Own Seibu Holdings Narrative

If you see the numbers differently or want to stress test your own assumptions, you can build a personalised story in just a few minutes: Do it your way.

A great starting point for your Seibu Holdings research is our analysis highlighting 3 key rewards and 2 important warning signs that could impact your investment decision.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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