Recent 3.5% pullback isn't enough to hurt long-term East Japan Railway (TSE:9020) shareholders, they're still up 83% over 5 years

The main point of investing for the long term is to make money. Better yet, you'd like to see the share price move up more than the market average. But East Japan Railway Company (TSE:9020) has fallen short of that second goal, with a share price rise of 70% over five years, which is below the market return. On a brighter note, more newer shareholders are probably rather content with the 24% share price gain over twelve months.

In light of the stock dropping 3.5% in the past week, we want to investigate the longer term story, and see if fundamentals have been the driver of the company's positive five-year return.

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There is no denying that markets are sometimes efficient, but prices do not always reflect underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the last half decade, East Japan Railway became profitable. That's generally thought to be a genuine positive, so investors may expect to see an increasing share price. Given that the company made a profit three years ago, but not five years ago, it is worth looking at the share price returns over the last three years, too. We can see that the East Japan Railway share price is up 41% in the last three years. During the same period, EPS grew by 527% each year. This EPS growth is higher than the 12% average annual increase in the share price over the same three years. So you might conclude the market is a little more cautious about the stock, these days.

The company's earnings per share (over time) is depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

It is of course excellent to see how East Japan Railway has grown profits over the years, but the future is more important for shareholders. You can see how its balance sheet has strengthened (or weakened) over time in this free interactive graphic.

What About Dividends?

It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. In the case of East Japan Railway, it has a TSR of 83% for the last 5 years. That exceeds its share price return that we previously mentioned. And there's no prize for guessing that the dividend payments largely explain the divergence!

A Different Perspective

We're pleased to report that East Japan Railway shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 26% over one year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That's better than the annualised return of 13% over half a decade, implying that the company is doing better recently. In the best case scenario, this may hint at some real business momentum, implying that now could be a great time to delve deeper. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. To that end, you should be aware of the 1 warning sign we've spotted with East Japan Railway .

We will like East Japan Railway better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of undervalued stocks (mostly small caps) with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.