Internet Initiative Japan Inc. Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

Internet Initiative Japan Inc. (TSE:3774) last week reported its latest first-quarter results, which makes it a good time for investors to dive in and see if the business is performing in line with expectations. It looks like a pretty bad result, all things considered. Although revenues of JP¥77b were in line with analyst predictions, statutory earnings fell badly short, missing estimates by 21% to hit JP¥21.35 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Internet Initiative Japan's eight analysts is for revenues of JP¥339.9b in 2026. This reflects a satisfactory 5.7% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to grow 16% to JP¥134. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥339.9b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥134 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Internet Initiative Japan

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥3,419, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Internet Initiative Japan analyst has a price target of JP¥4,000 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥3,000. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Internet Initiative Japan's past performance and to peers in the same industry. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Internet Initiative Japan'shistorical trends, as the 7.6% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 is roughly in line with the 9.4% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 3.2% per year. So although Internet Initiative Japan is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,419, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that said, the long-term trajectory of the company's earnings is a lot more important than next year. We have estimates - from multiple Internet Initiative Japan analysts - going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You can also view our analysis of Internet Initiative Japan's balance sheet, and whether we think Internet Initiative Japan is carrying too much debt, for free on our platform here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.