Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) Just Reported Half-Yearly Earnings: Have Analysts Changed Their Mind On The Stock?

Investors in Keyence Corporation (TSE:6861) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.0% to close at JP¥69,780 following the release of its interim results. Keyence reported JP¥516b in revenue, roughly in line with analyst forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥397 beat expectations, being 3.8% higher than what the analysts expected. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Keyence

After the latest results, the 17 analysts covering Keyence are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.06t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 4.1% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to increase 4.2% to JP¥1,634. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.07t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,653 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

There were no changes to revenue or earnings estimates or the price target of JP¥79,375, suggesting that the company has met expectations in its recent result. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Keyence, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥95,000 and the most bearish at JP¥53,000 per share. As you can see, analysts are not all in agreement on the stock's future, but the range of estimates is still reasonably narrow, which could suggest that the outcome is not totally unpredictable.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that Keyence's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 8.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2025 being well below the historical 15% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 7.3% annually. Factoring in the forecast slowdown in growth, it looks like Keyence is forecast to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥79,375, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have estimates - from multiple Keyence analysts - going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Keyence Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.