Otsuka Corporation Just Missed Earnings - But Analysts Have Updated Their Models

It's been a pretty great week for Otsuka Corporation (TSE:4768) shareholders, with its shares surging 12% to JP¥3,204 in the week since its latest interim results. Statutory earnings per share of JP¥51.78 unfortunately missed expectations by 13%, although it was encouraging to see revenues of JP¥695b exceed expectations by 5.0%. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

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After the latest results, the ten analysts covering Otsuka are now predicting revenues of JP¥1.26t in 2025. If met, this would reflect a modest 2.2% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥159, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥1.24t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥157 in 2025. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Otsuka

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥3,556, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. Currently, the most bullish analyst values Otsuka at JP¥4,400 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥2,710. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the Otsuka's past performance and to peers in the same industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Otsuka's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2025 expected to display 4.5% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.1% over the past five years. Compare this to the 216 other companies in this industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenue at 5.3% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Otsuka's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, with the company predicted to grow at about the same rate as the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,556, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Otsuka going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here..

Even so, be aware that Otsuka is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those makes us a bit uncomfortable...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.