Brains Technology, Inc.'s (TSE:4075) 28% Share Price Plunge Could Signal Some Risk

To the annoyance of some shareholders, Brains Technology, Inc. (TSE:4075) shares are down a considerable 28% in the last month, which continues a horrid run for the company. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 52% loss during that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, given close to half the companies in Japan have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 13x, you may still consider Brains Technology as a stock to avoid entirely with its 30.5x P/E ratio. However, the P/E might be quite high for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

For instance, Brains Technology's receding earnings in recent times would have to be some food for thought. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think the company will still do enough to outperform the broader market in the near future. You'd really hope so, otherwise you're paying a pretty hefty price for no particular reason.

Check out our latest analysis for Brains Technology

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Brains Technology, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?

Brains Technology's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver very strong growth, and importantly, perform much better than the market.

Taking a look back first, the company's earnings per share growth last year wasn't something to get excited about as it posted a disappointing decline of 10.0%. This means it has also seen a slide in earnings over the longer-term as EPS is down 23% in total over the last three years. So unfortunately, we have to acknowledge that the company has not done a great job of growing earnings over that time.

Weighing that medium-term earnings trajectory against the broader market's one-year forecast for expansion of 9.8% shows it's an unpleasant look.

In light of this, it's alarming that Brains Technology's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

The Bottom Line On Brains Technology's P/E

Even after such a strong price drop, Brains Technology's P/E still exceeds the rest of the market significantly. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Brains Technology currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent earnings have been in decline over the medium-term. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance is highly unlikely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Brains Technology (at least 1 which is significant), and understanding them should be part of your investment process.

If you're unsure about the strength of Brains Technology's business, why not explore our interactive list of stocks with solid business fundamentals for some other companies you may have missed.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team@simplywallst.com