Segue Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3968) Shares May Have Slumped 25% But Getting In Cheap Is Still Unlikely

The Segue Group Co., Ltd. (TSE:3968) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. The drop over the last 30 days has capped off a tough year for shareholders, with the share price down 33% in that time.

Although its price has dipped substantially, Segue Group's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 28.7x might still make it look like a strong sell right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios below 13x and even P/E's below 9x are quite common. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly elevated P/E.

As an illustration, earnings have deteriorated at Segue Group over the last year, which is not ideal at all. It might be that many expect the company to still outplay most other companies over the coming period, which has kept the P/E from collapsing. If not, then existing shareholders may be quite nervous about the viability of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Segue Group

Although there are no analyst estimates available for Segue Group, take a look at this free data-rich visualisation to see how the company stacks up on earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Segue Group would need to produce outstanding growth well in excess of the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 20%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 21% in total. Although it's been a bumpy ride, it's still fair to say the earnings growth recently has been mostly respectable for the company.

Comparing that to the market, which is predicted to deliver 11% growth in the next 12 months, the company's momentum is weaker based on recent medium-term annualised earnings results.

In light of this, it's alarming that Segue Group's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. Apparently many investors in the company are way more bullish than recent times would indicate and aren't willing to let go of their stock at any price. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as a continuation of recent earnings trends is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.

What We Can Learn From Segue Group's P/E?

Segue Group's shares may have retreated, but its P/E is still flying high. We'd say the price-to-earnings ratio's power isn't primarily as a valuation instrument but rather to gauge current investor sentiment and future expectations.

We've established that Segue Group currently trades on a much higher than expected P/E since its recent three-year growth is lower than the wider market forecast. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as this earnings performance isn't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve markedly, it's very challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

You should always think about risks. Case in point, we've spotted 3 warning signs for Segue Group you should be aware of.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.