BrainPad Inc. (TSE:3655) Stock's Been Sliding But Fundamentals Look Decent: Will The Market Correct The Share Price In The Future?

It is hard to get excited after looking at BrainPad's (TSE:3655) recent performance, when its stock has declined 23% over the past three months. However, stock prices are usually driven by a company’s financials over the long term, which in this case look pretty respectable. Particularly, we will be paying attention to BrainPad's ROE today.

ROE or return on equity is a useful tool to assess how effectively a company can generate returns on the investment it received from its shareholders. In simpler terms, it measures the profitability of a company in relation to shareholder's equity.

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How Is ROE Calculated?

The formula for ROE is:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for BrainPad is:

20% = JP¥1.2b ÷ JP¥6.1b (Based on the trailing twelve months to December 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every ¥1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn ¥0.20 in profit.

Check out our latest analysis for BrainPad

Why Is ROE Important For Earnings Growth?

We have already established that ROE serves as an efficient profit-generating gauge for a company's future earnings. Based on how much of its profits the company chooses to reinvest or "retain", we are then able to evaluate a company's future ability to generate profits. Assuming everything else remains unchanged, the higher the ROE and profit retention, the higher the growth rate of a company compared to companies that don't necessarily bear these characteristics.

BrainPad's Earnings Growth And 20% ROE

To start with, BrainPad's ROE looks acceptable. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 14%. However, for some reason, the higher returns aren't reflected in BrainPad's meagre five year net income growth average of 2.8%. This is interesting as the high returns should mean that the company has the ability to generate high growth but for some reason, it hasn't been able to do so. We reckon that a low growth, when returns are quite high could be the result of certain circumstances like low earnings retention or poor allocation of capital.

We then compared BrainPad's net income growth with the industry and found that the company's growth figure is lower than the average industry growth rate of 14% in the same 5-year period, which is a bit concerning.

Earnings growth is an important metric to consider when valuing a stock. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. Doing so will help them establish if the stock's future looks promising or ominous. Is BrainPad fairly valued compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Is BrainPad Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

BrainPad has a low three-year median payout ratio of 20% (meaning, the company keeps the remaining 80% of profits) which means that the company is retaining more of its earnings. This should be reflected in its earnings growth number, but that's not the case. So there could be some other explanation in that regard. For instance, the company's business may be deteriorating.

In addition, BrainPad only recently started paying a dividend so the management must have decided the shareholders prefer dividends over earnings growth.

Summary

Overall, we feel that BrainPad certainly does have some positive factors to consider. However, given the high ROE and high profit retention, we would expect the company to be delivering strong earnings growth, but that isn't the case here. This suggests that there might be some external threat to the business, that's hampering its growth. With that said, the latest industry analyst forecasts reveal that the company's earnings are expected to accelerate. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.