Earnings Beat: Lasertec Corporation Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Lasertec Corporation (TSE:6920) investors will be delighted, with the company turning in some strong numbers with its latest results. Statutory revenue of JP¥129b and earnings of JP¥480 both blasted past expectations, beating expectations by 29% and 47%, respectively, ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for Lasertec

Following last week's earnings report, Lasertec's 16 analysts are forecasting 2025 revenues to be JP¥246.7b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to dip 3.7% to JP¥856 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥244.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥844 in 2025. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥23,369. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic Lasertec analyst has a price target of JP¥43,267 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥12,100. So we wouldn't be assigning too much credibility to analyst price targets in this case, because there are clearly some widely different views on what kind of performance this business can generate. As a result it might not be a great idea to make decisions based on the consensus price target, which is after all just an average of this wide range of estimates.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 0.6% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 38% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 8.6% annually for the foreseeable future. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Lasertec is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that there's been no major change in sentiment, with the analysts reconfirming that the business is performing in line with their previous earnings per share estimates. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Lasertec going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Even so, be aware that Lasertec is showing 3 warning signs in our investment analysis , and 1 of those is potentially serious...

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.