Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' It's only natural to consider a company's balance sheet when you examine how risky it is, since debt is often involved when a business collapses. Importantly, Furuya Metal Co., Ltd. (TYO:7826) does carry debt. But should shareholders be worried about its use of debt?
Why Does Debt Bring Risk?
Debt and other liabilities become risky for a business when it cannot easily fulfill those obligations, either with free cash flow or by raising capital at an attractive price. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. While that is not too common, we often do see indebted companies permanently diluting shareholders because lenders force them to raise capital at a distressed price. Having said that, the most common situation is where a company manages its debt reasonably well - and to its own advantage. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
Check out our latest analysis for Furuya Metal
What Is Furuya Metal's Debt?
As you can see below, Furuya Metal had JP¥12.6b of debt at September 2020, down from JP¥14.8b a year prior. On the flip side, it has JP¥8.15b in cash leading to net debt of about JP¥4.43b.
How Strong Is Furuya Metal's Balance Sheet?
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Furuya Metal had liabilities of JP¥9.71b falling due within a year, and liabilities of JP¥9.60b due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of JP¥8.15b and JP¥3.24b worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities total JP¥7.92b more than the combination of its cash and short-term receivables.
Given Furuya Metal has a market capitalization of JP¥42.2b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. But there are sufficient liabilities that we would certainly recommend shareholders continue to monitor the balance sheet, going forward.
We use two main ratios to inform us about debt levels relative to earnings. The first is net debt divided by earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA), while the second is how many times its earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) covers its interest expense (or its interest cover, for short). The advantage of this approach is that we take into account both the absolute quantum of debt (with net debt to EBITDA) and the actual interest expenses associated with that debt (with its interest cover ratio).
Furuya Metal's net debt is only 1.0 times its EBITDA. And its EBIT easily covers its interest expense, being 61.9 times the size. So you could argue it is no more threatened by its debt than an elephant is by a mouse. Fortunately, Furuya Metal grew its EBIT by 5.9% in the last year, making that debt load look even more manageable. There's no doubt that we learn most about debt from the balance sheet. But it is future earnings, more than anything, that will determine Furuya Metal's ability to maintain a healthy balance sheet going forward. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. So the logical step is to look at the proportion of that EBIT that is matched by actual free cash flow. Over the last three years, Furuya Metal saw substantial negative free cash flow, in total. While that may be a result of expenditure for growth, it does make the debt far more risky.
Our View
Based on what we've seen Furuya Metal is not finding it easy, given its conversion of EBIT to free cash flow, but the other factors we considered give us cause to be optimistic. In particular, we are dazzled with its interest cover. When we consider all the factors mentioned above, we do feel a bit cautious about Furuya Metal's use of debt. While we appreciate debt can enhance returns on equity, we'd suggest that shareholders keep close watch on its debt levels, lest they increase. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 2 warning signs with Furuya Metal (at least 1 which is concerning) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you're interested in investing in businesses that can grow profits without the burden of debt, then check out this free list of growing businesses that have net cash on the balance sheet.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About TSE:7826
Furuya Metal
Manufactures and sells industrial-use precious metal products and temperature sensors in Japan.
Very undervalued with excellent balance sheet.