Earnings Beat: Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. Just Beat Analyst Forecasts, And Analysts Have Been Updating Their Models

Shareholders of Fast Retailing Co., Ltd. (TSE:9983) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 13% to JP¥51,500 following its latest full-year results. The result was positive overall - although revenues of JP¥3.4t were in line with what the analysts predicted, Fast Retailing surprised by delivering a statutory profit of JP¥1,411 per share, modestly greater than expected. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Trump has pledged to "unleash" American oil and gas and these 15 US stocks have developments that are poised to benefit.

Following the latest results, Fast Retailing's 14 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥3.67t in 2026. This would be a modest 7.8% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Statutory per share are forecast to be JP¥1,414, approximately in line with the last 12 months. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥3.66t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥1,392 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

Check out our latest analysis for Fast Retailing

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥53,484, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Fast Retailing, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥58,500 and the most bearish at JP¥48,000 per share. Still, with such a tight range of estimates, it suggeststhe analysts have a pretty good idea of what they think the company is worth.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that Fast Retailing's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 7.8% annualised growth rate until the end of 2026 being well below the historical 12% p.a. growth over the last five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 6.7% annually. So it's pretty clear that, while Fast Retailing's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's expected to grow roughly in line with the industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no real changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow in line with the overall industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Fast Retailing. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Fast Retailing going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Fast Retailing Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.