Stock Analysis

Investing in Path (TSE:3840) three years ago would have delivered you a 104% gain

TSE:3840
Source: Shutterstock

The most you can lose on any stock (assuming you don't use leverage) is 100% of your money. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. To wit, the Path Corporation (TSE:3840) share price has flown 104% in the last three years. That sort of return is as solid as granite. And in the last week the share price has popped 10.0%.

Let's take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they've been consistent with shareholders returns.

Check out our latest analysis for Path

Given that Path didn't make a profit in the last twelve months, we'll focus on revenue growth to form a quick view of its business development. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. That's because it's hard to be confident a company will be sustainable if revenue growth is negligible, and it never makes a profit.

Over the last three years Path has grown its revenue at 2.9% annually. That's not a very high growth rate considering it doesn't make profits. In comparison, the share price rise of 27% per year over the last three years is pretty impressive. Shareholders should be pretty happy with that, although interested investors might want to examine the financial data more closely to see if the gains are really justified. It seems likely that the market is pretty optimistic about Path, given it is losing money.

You can see how earnings and revenue have changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

earnings-and-revenue-growth
TSE:3840 Earnings and Revenue Growth January 28th 2025

If you are thinking of buying or selling Path stock, you should check out this FREE detailed report on its balance sheet.

A Different Perspective

While the broader market gained around 10% in the last year, Path shareholders lost 25%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 4% per year over five years. We realise that Baron Rothschild has said investors should "buy when there is blood on the streets", but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality business. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Like risks, for instance. Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Path (of which 1 shouldn't be ignored!) you should know about.

For those who like to find winning investments this free list of undervalued companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on Japanese exchanges.

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Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

About TSE:3840

Path

Primarily engages in e-commerce business in Japan.

Excellent balance sheet low.

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