AEON Mall Co., Ltd. Just Missed EPS By 14%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Last week, you might have seen that AEON Mall Co., Ltd. (TSE:8905) released its quarterly result to the market. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.2% to JP¥1,930 in the past week. It was not a great result overall. Although revenues beat expectations, hitting JP¥110b, statutory earnings missed analyst forecasts by 14%, coming in at just JP¥14.07 per share. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

Check out our latest analysis for AEON Mall

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for AEON Mall from five analysts is for revenues of JP¥471.4b in 2026. If met, it would imply a modest 6.7% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to leap 50% to JP¥118. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of JP¥476.3b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥122 in 2026. So it looks like there's been a small decline in overall sentiment after the recent results - there's been no major change to revenue estimates, but the analysts did make a small dip in their earnings per share forecasts.

The consensus price target held steady at JP¥2,004, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. That's not the only conclusion we can draw from this data however, as some investors also like to consider the spread in estimates when evaluating analyst price targets. Currently, the most bullish analyst values AEON Mall at JP¥2,200 per share, while the most bearish prices it at JP¥1,840. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting AEON Mall is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that AEON Mall's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.3% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 9.5% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 4.2% per year. Even after the forecast slowdown in growth, it seems obvious that AEON Mall is also expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on AEON Mall. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for AEON Mall going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

And what about risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 1 warning sign for AEON Mall you should know about.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.