PeptiDream Inc. Just Beat Revenue Estimates By 13%

Shareholders of PeptiDream Inc. (TSE:4587) will be pleased this week, given that the stock price is up 11% to JP¥2,326 following its latest half-year results. It was a mildly positive result, with revenues exceeding expectations at JP¥32b, while statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥145 were in line with analyst forecasts. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

See our latest analysis for PeptiDream

Taking into account the latest results, the seven analysts covering PeptiDream provided consensus estimates of JP¥46.7b revenue in 2024, which would reflect a definite 16% decline over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to decline 16% to JP¥141 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥46.6b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥129 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on PeptiDream's earnings potential following these results.

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥3,300, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on PeptiDream, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥4,900 and the most bearish at JP¥2,500 per share. Note the wide gap in analyst price targets? This implies to us that there is a fairly broad range of possible scenarios for the underlying business.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the PeptiDream's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 29% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 40% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 18% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that PeptiDream's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards PeptiDream following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥3,300, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on PeptiDream. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have estimates - from multiple PeptiDream analysts - going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 3 warning signs we've spotted with PeptiDream (including 2 which shouldn't be ignored) .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.