Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

Shareholders might have noticed that Chugai Pharmaceutical Co., Ltd. (TSE:4519) filed its third-quarter result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 3.9% to JP¥6,787 in the past week. Revenues of JP¥333b were in line with forecasts, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) came in below expectations at JP¥67.58, missing estimates by 7.8%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.

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Following the latest results, Chugai Pharmaceutical's 13 analysts are now forecasting revenues of JP¥1.30t in 2026. This would be an okay 7.0% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to step up 19% to JP¥286. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥1.30t and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥287 in 2026. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

See our latest analysis for Chugai Pharmaceutical

It will come as no surprise then, to learn that the consensus price target is largely unchanged at JP¥8,093. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. There are some variant perceptions on Chugai Pharmaceutical, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥10,800 and the most bearish at JP¥6,100 per share. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Chugai Pharmaceutical shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. It's pretty clear that there is an expectation that Chugai Pharmaceutical's revenue growth will slow down substantially, with revenues to the end of 2026 expected to display 5.6% growth on an annualised basis. This is compared to a historical growth rate of 7.5% over the past five years. Juxtapose this against the other companies in the industry with analyst coverage, which are forecast to grow their revenues (in aggregate) 3.9% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while Chugai Pharmaceutical's revenue growth is expected to slow, it's still expected to grow faster than the industry itself.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Chugai Pharmaceutical. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Chugai Pharmaceutical going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Chugai Pharmaceutical has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.