Why Investors Shouldn't Be Surprised By Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd.'s (TSE:4516) 29% Share Price Plunge

Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. (TSE:4516) shareholders that were waiting for something to happen have been dealt a blow with a 29% share price drop in the last month. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 52% loss during that time.

Even after such a large drop in price, Nippon Shinyaku's price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 8.2x might still make it look like a buy right now compared to the market in Japan, where around half of the companies have P/E ratios above 15x and even P/E's above 23x are quite common. However, the P/E might be low for a reason and it requires further investigation to determine if it's justified.

Nippon Shinyaku certainly has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings more than most other companies. It might be that many expect the strong earnings performance to degrade substantially, which has repressed the P/E. If not, then existing shareholders have reason to be quite optimistic about the future direction of the share price.

See our latest analysis for Nippon Shinyaku

If you'd like to see what analysts are forecasting going forward, you should check out our free report on Nippon Shinyaku.

Is There Any Growth For Nippon Shinyaku?

Nippon Shinyaku's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's only expected to deliver limited growth, and importantly, perform worse than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings growth, the company posted a worthy increase of 13%. The latest three year period has also seen a 25% overall rise in EPS, aided somewhat by its short-term performance. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably been satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should bring diminished returns, with earnings decreasing 0.06% per year as estimated by the seven analysts watching the company. With the market predicted to deliver 9.6% growth per annum, that's a disappointing outcome.

With this information, we are not surprised that Nippon Shinyaku is trading at a P/E lower than the market. Nonetheless, there's no guarantee the P/E has reached a floor yet with earnings going in reverse. There's potential for the P/E to fall to even lower levels if the company doesn't improve its profitability.

The Bottom Line On Nippon Shinyaku's P/E

Nippon Shinyaku's recently weak share price has pulled its P/E below most other companies. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

As we suspected, our examination of Nippon Shinyaku's analyst forecasts revealed that its outlook for shrinking earnings is contributing to its low P/E. Right now shareholders are accepting the low P/E as they concede future earnings probably won't provide any pleasant surprises. It's hard to see the share price rising strongly in the near future under these circumstances.

And what about other risks? Every company has them, and we've spotted 3 warning signs for Nippon Shinyaku (of which 1 is concerning!) you should know about.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

Have feedback on this article? Concerned about the content? Get in touch with us directly. Alternatively, email editorial-team (at) simplywallst.com.

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.