Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd.

TSE:4516 Stock Report

Market Cap: JP¥281.8b

Nippon Shinyaku Valuation

Is 4516 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 4516 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 4516 (¥3849) is trading above our estimate of fair value (¥2964.48)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 4516 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 4516?

Key metric: As 4516 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 4516. This is calculated by dividing 4516's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 4516's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio10x
EarningsJP¥26.05b
Market CapJP¥281.85b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 4516's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 4516 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.9x
4530 Hisamitsu Pharmaceutical
20.5x11.1%JP¥300.7b
4887 Sawai Group Holdings
16.1x2.4%JP¥266.0b
4540 Tsumura
14.2x7.1%JP¥358.9b
4521 Kaken Pharmaceutical
8.8x-56.2%JP¥161.2b
4516 Nippon Shinyaku
10x-8.0%JP¥259.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 4516 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the peer average (14.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 4516's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Pharmaceuticals Industry?

0 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies available in this PE range
4516 10.0xIndustry Avg. 15.3xNo. of Companies7PE01020304050+
0 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 4516 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the JP Pharmaceuticals industry average (15.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 4516's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

4516 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio10x
Fair PE Ratio15.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 4516 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (15.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 4516 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentJP¥3,849.00
JP¥4,131.25
+7.3%
18.7%JP¥5,600.00JP¥3,300.00n/a8
Dec ’25JP¥4,358.00
JP¥4,050.00
-7.1%
19.8%JP¥5,600.00JP¥3,300.00n/a8
Nov ’25JP¥4,119.00
JP¥3,893.75
-5.5%
21.3%JP¥5,350.00JP¥2,900.00n/a8
Oct ’25JP¥3,852.00
JP¥3,731.25
-3.1%
22.5%JP¥5,350.00JP¥2,900.00n/a8
Sep ’25JP¥3,512.00
JP¥3,692.86
+5.1%
20.9%JP¥4,900.00JP¥2,900.00n/a7
Aug ’25JP¥3,374.00
JP¥3,987.14
+18.2%
22.8%JP¥5,100.00JP¥2,900.00n/a7
Jul ’25JP¥3,325.00
JP¥3,987.14
+19.9%
22.8%JP¥5,100.00JP¥2,900.00n/a7
Jun ’25JP¥3,073.00
JP¥5,064.29
+64.8%
24.4%JP¥7,500.00JP¥2,900.00n/a7
May ’25JP¥4,417.00
JP¥6,371.43
+44.2%
19.3%JP¥8,000.00JP¥4,900.00n/a7
Apr ’25JP¥4,417.00
JP¥6,628.57
+50.1%
16.9%JP¥8,000.00JP¥4,900.00n/a7
Mar ’25JP¥4,790.00
JP¥7,328.57
+53.0%
22.6%JP¥10,000.00JP¥5,100.00n/a7
Feb ’25JP¥5,189.00
JP¥7,814.29
+50.6%
18.2%JP¥10,000.00JP¥5,300.00n/a7
Jan ’25JP¥4,996.00
JP¥7,814.29
+56.4%
18.2%JP¥10,000.00JP¥5,300.00n/a7
Dec ’24JP¥5,308.00
JP¥8,057.14
+51.8%
15.8%JP¥10,000.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥4,358.007
Nov ’24JP¥5,985.00
JP¥8,385.71
+40.1%
20.0%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥4,119.007
Oct ’24JP¥6,329.00
JP¥8,550.00
+35.1%
20.5%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,852.006
Sep ’24JP¥6,454.00
JP¥8,387.50
+30.0%
16.2%JP¥10,300.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,512.008
Aug ’24JP¥5,819.00
JP¥8,287.50
+42.4%
15.9%JP¥10,000.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,374.008
Jul ’24JP¥5,874.00
JP¥8,550.00
+45.6%
13.4%JP¥10,000.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,325.008
Jun ’24JP¥6,410.00
JP¥9,177.78
+43.2%
15.1%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,300.00JP¥3,073.009
May ’24JP¥6,270.00
JP¥9,022.22
+43.9%
18.6%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,200.00JP¥4,417.009
Apr ’24JP¥5,830.00
JP¥9,022.22
+54.8%
18.6%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,200.00JP¥4,417.009
Mar ’24JP¥5,900.00
JP¥9,122.22
+54.6%
16.9%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,200.00JP¥4,790.009
Feb ’24JP¥6,700.00
JP¥9,711.11
+44.9%
16.5%JP¥11,000.00JP¥6,800.00JP¥5,189.009
Jan ’24JP¥7,480.00
JP¥9,933.33
+32.8%
17.5%JP¥12,500.00JP¥7,000.00JP¥4,996.009
Dec ’23JP¥7,880.00
JP¥10,000.00
+26.9%
17.9%JP¥12,500.00JP¥7,000.00JP¥5,308.009

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/23 16:02
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/23 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/03/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Nippon Shinyaku Co., Ltd. is covered by 17 analysts. 8 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Tatsuyuki AraiBofA Global Research
Hidemaru YamaguchiCitigroup Global Markets Japan Inc.
Hidemaru YamaguchiCitigroup Inc