Analyst Estimates: Here's What Brokers Think Of Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507) After Its Half-Year Report

Last week saw the newest half-year earnings release from Shionogi & Co., Ltd. (TSE:4507), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. Shionogi missed revenue estimates by 4.8%, coming in atJP¥213b, although statutory earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥51.93 beat expectations, coming in 2.7% ahead of analyst estimates. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Shionogi from ten analysts is for revenues of JP¥497.5b in 2026. If met, it would imply a solid 14% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are predicted to step up 11% to JP¥223. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥494.8b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥209 in 2026. The analysts seems to have become more bullish on the business, judging by their new earnings per share estimates.

See our latest analysis for Shionogi

The consensus price target was unchanged at JP¥2,591, implying that the improved earnings outlook is not expected to have a long term impact on value creation for shareholders. There's another way to think about price targets though, and that's to look at the range of price targets put forward by analysts, because a wide range of estimates could suggest a diverse view on possible outcomes for the business. The most optimistic Shionogi analyst has a price target of JP¥3,050 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at JP¥2,000. There are definitely some different views on the stock, but the range of estimates is not wide enough as to imply that the situation is unforecastable, in our view.

Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. It's clear from the latest estimates that Shionogi's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 29% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2026 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 9.5% p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 3.9% annually. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Shionogi to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Shionogi's earnings potential next year. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Shionogi. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Shionogi going out to 2028, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We also provide an overview of the Shionogi Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.