Revenue Beat: Toho Co., Ltd. Exceeded Revenue Forecasts By 6.8% And Analysts Are Updating Their Estimates

It's been a good week for Toho Co., Ltd. (TSE:9602) shareholders, because the company has just released its latest quarterly results, and the shares gained 6.7% to JP¥6,479. Results overall were respectable, with statutory earnings of JP¥260 per share roughly in line with what the analysts had forecast. Revenues of JP¥70b came in 6.8% ahead of analyst predictions. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.

View our latest analysis for Toho

Following last week's earnings report, Toho's eight analysts are forecasting 2026 revenues to be JP¥311.8b, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 12% to JP¥265 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of JP¥309.2b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥264 in 2026. The consensus analysts don't seem to have seen anything in these results that would have changed their view on the business, given there's been no major change to their estimates.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of JP¥6,760, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. There are some variant perceptions on Toho, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at JP¥7,600 and the most bearish at JP¥6,100 per share. With such a narrow range of valuations, the analysts apparently share similar views on what they think the business is worth.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 0.7% annualised decline to the end of 2026. That is a notable change from historical growth of 6.6% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 10% per year. So although its revenues are forecast to shrink, this cloud does not come with a silver lining - Toho is expected to lag the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, the analysts also reconfirmed their revenue estimates, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Although our data does suggest that Toho's revenue is expected to perform worse than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at JP¥6,760, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. We have forecasts for Toho going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We also provide an overview of the Toho Board and CEO remuneration and length of tenure at the company, and whether insiders have been buying the stock, here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.