ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (TSE:2491) Analysts Just Slashed This Year's Revenue Estimates By 11%

Market forces rained on the parade of ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. (TSE:2491) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

After the downgrade, the consensus from ValueCommerce's two analysts is for revenues of JP¥27b in 2025, which would reflect an uncomfortable 10% decline in sales compared to the last year of performance. Statutory earnings per share are anticipated to dive 21% to JP¥105 in the same period. Before this latest update, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of JP¥31b and earnings per share (EPS) of JP¥113 in 2025. It looks like analyst sentiment has fallen somewhat in this update, with a measurable cut to revenue estimates and a small dip in earnings per share numbers as well.

View our latest analysis for ValueCommerce

The consensus price target fell 19% to JP¥1,100, with the weaker earnings outlook clearly leading analyst valuation estimates.

These estimates are interesting, but it can be useful to paint some more broad strokes when seeing how forecasts compare, both to the ValueCommerce's past performance and to peers in the same industry. These estimates imply that sales are expected to slow, with a forecast annualised revenue decline of 10% by the end of 2025. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 1.9% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 4.2% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that ValueCommerce's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their earnings per share estimates, expecting a clear decline in business conditions. Unfortunately analysts also downgraded their revenue estimates, and industry data suggests that ValueCommerce's revenues are expected to grow slower than the wider market. Furthermore, there was a cut to the price target, suggesting that the latest news has led to more pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on ValueCommerce after today.

Even so, the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for the value creation of shareholders. We have analyst estimates for ValueCommerce going out as far as 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

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