ValueCommerce (TSE:2491) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2491 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2491 (¥2182) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (¥5823.57)

2491 fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	4/6
Past Performance	6/6
Financial Health	6/6
Dividends	4/6

2491 Stock Overview

ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. provides marketing solutions in Japan and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 62.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.55% per year

Earnings grew by 116.7% over the past year

Trading at good value vs. peer average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading at good value vs. industry average Price-To-Earnings ratio

Trading below our calculated fair Price-To-Earnings ratio

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

ValueCommerce Competitors

Direct Marketing MiX

TSE:7354

JP¥73.3b

INTAGE HOLDINGS

TSE:4326

JP¥60.8b

Vector

TSE:6058

JP¥51.6b

Septeni Holdings

TSE:4293

JP¥94.6b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for ValueCommerce
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	JP¥2,182.00
52 Week High	JP¥5,290.00
52 Week Low	JP¥2,161.00
Beta	1.32
1 Month Change	-13.48%
3 Month Change	-30.40%
1 Year Change	-55.38%
3 Year Change	32.32%
5 Year Change	149.66%
Change since IPO	105.85%

Shareholder Returns

	2491	JP Media	JP Market
7D	-3.2%	-2.8%	-2.3%
1Y	-55.4%	-21.9%	-8.8%

Return vs Industry: 2491 underperformed the JP Media industry which returned -24.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: 2491 underperformed the JP Market which returned -10.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is 2491's price volatile compared to industry and market?
2491 volatility
2491 Average Weekly Movement	4.4%
Media Industry Average Movement	4.2%
Market Average Movement	3.5%
10% most volatile stocks in JP Market	7.4%
10% least volatile stocks in JP Market	1.8%

Stable Share Price: 2491 is not significantly more volatile than the rest of JP stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 4% a week.

Volatility Over Time: 2491's weekly volatility (4%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1996	380	Jin Kagawa	https://www.valuecommerce.co.jp

ValueCommerce Co., Ltd. provides marketing solutions in Japan and internationally. The company develops and offers affiliate marketing services, including pay-per-performance advertising services; and Value Point Club, a cash-back program that allows users to shop top brands and earn points for purchases. It also offers STORE’s R8, a CRM tool for stores in online shopping malls; Storematch, a service that provides pay-per-click Internet advertising for stores in online shopping malls and manufacturers; and B-Space, an EC operation support tool for e-commerce operators.

ValueCommerce Fundamentals Summary

How do ValueCommerce's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
2491 fundamental statistics
Market Cap	JP¥70.55b
Earnings (TTM)	JP¥5.90b
Revenue (TTM)	JP¥35.72b

12.0x

P/E Ratio

2.0x

P/S Ratio

Is 2491 overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
2491 income statement (TTM)
Revenue	JP¥35.72b
Cost of Revenue	JP¥22.47b
Gross Profit	JP¥13.25b
Other Expenses	JP¥7.35b
Earnings	JP¥5.90b

Last Reported Earnings

Jun 30, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Oct 28, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	182.38
Gross Margin	37.09%
Net Profit Margin	16.51%
Debt/Equity Ratio	0.0%

How did 2491 perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

2.7%

Current Dividend Yield

29%

Payout Ratio

Does 2491 pay a reliable dividends?

See 2491 dividend history and benchmarks

When do you need to buy 2491 by to receive an upcoming dividend?
ValueCommerce dividend dates
Ex Dividend Date	Dec 29 2022
Dividend Pay Date	Mar 07 2023
Days until Ex dividend	92 days
Days until Dividend pay date	160 days

Does 2491 pay a reliable dividends?

See 2491 dividend history and benchmarks

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is 2491 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2491?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for 2491. This is calculated by dividing 2491's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is 2491's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	JP¥70.55b

2491 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	5.7x
PEG Ratio	1.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2491's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

2491 PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2491 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.8x
7354 Direct Marketing MiX	19.2x	14.9%	JP¥73.3b
4326 INTAGE HOLDINGS	17.8x	11.3%	JP¥60.8b
6058 Vector	20.9x	15.6%	JP¥51.6b
4293 Septeni Holdings	21.3x	14.8%	JP¥94.6b
2491 ValueCommerce	12x	9.6%	JP¥70.6b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2491 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the peer average (19.8x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2491's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the JP Media Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2491 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the JP Media industry average (13.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2491's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2491 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	12x
Fair PE Ratio	17.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2491 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.4x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2491 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2491 (¥2182) is trading below our estimate of fair value (¥5823.57)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2491 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is ValueCommerce forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 4 analysts?

Future Growth Score

4/6

Future Growth Score 4/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: 2491's forecast earnings growth (9.6% per year) is above the savings rate (0.04%).

Earnings vs Market: 2491's earnings (9.6% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the JP market (8.5% per year).

High Growth Earnings: 2491's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: 2491's revenue (11.9% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the JP market (4.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: 2491's revenue (11.9% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: 2491's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (24.9%)

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Past Performance

How has ValueCommerce performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

6/6

Past Performance Score 6/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

26.4%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: 2491 has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: 2491's current net profit margins (16.5%) are higher than last year (8.8%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: 2491's earnings have grown significantly by 26.4% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: 2491's earnings growth over the past year (116.7%) exceeds its 5-year average (26.4% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: 2491 earnings growth over the past year (116.7%) exceeded the Media industry 35.2%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: 2491's Return on Equity (31.1%) is considered high.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is ValueCommerce's financial position?

Financial Health Score

6/6

Financial Health Score 6/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Debt Coverage
Interest Coverage

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: 2491's short term assets (¥24.2B) exceed its short term liabilities (¥7.2B).

Long Term Liabilities: 2491's short term assets (¥24.2B) exceed its long term liabilities (¥75.0M).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: 2491 is debt free.

Reducing Debt: 2491 has not had any debt for past 5 years.

Debt Coverage: 2491 has no debt, therefore it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.

Interest Coverage: 2491 has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.

Balance Sheet

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Dividend

What is ValueCommerce current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Cash Flow Coverage

2.66%

Current Dividend Yield

Upcoming Dividend Payment

Dividend Yield vs Market

ValueCommerce Dividend Yield vs Market

How does ValueCommerce dividend yield compare to the market?
Segment	Dividend Yield
Company (ValueCommerce)	2.7%
Market Bottom 25% (JP)	1.7%
Market Top 25% (JP)	3.7%
Industry Average (Media)	2.6%
Analyst forecast in 3 Years (ValueCommerce)	3.1%

Notable Dividend: 2491's dividend (2.66%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (1.68%).

High Dividend: 2491's dividend (2.66%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the JP market (3.73%).

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: 2491's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: 2491's dividend payments have increased over the past 10 years.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (29%), 2491's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: With its reasonably low cash payout ratio (28.9%), 2491's dividend payments are well covered by cash flows.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.7yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Jin Kagawa (54 yo)

8.67yrs

Tenure

Mr. Jin Kagawa has been Chief Executive Officer, President and Representative Director of ValueCommerce Co. Ltd. since January 2014 and serves as General Manager of Corporate Division. Mr. Kagawa served as...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: 2491's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.7 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: 2491's board of directors are considered experienced (4 years average tenure).

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

What is the ownership structure of 2491?
Owner Type	Number of Shares	Ownership Percentage
Individual Insiders	344,700	1.1%
State or Government	374,891	1.2%
General Public	5,609,586	17.3%
Institutions	9,216,570	28.5%
Private Companies	16,788,400	51.9%

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Top Shareholders

Top 25 shareholders own 81.43% of the company

Ownership	Name	Shares	Current Value	Change %	Portfolio %
51.92%	Z Intermediate Holdings Co.,Ltd.	16,788,400	¥36.6b	0%	no data
5.6%	Asset Management One Co., Ltd.	1,809,600	¥3.9b	0%	0.03%
3.75%	Goldman Sachs Group, Investment Banking and Securities Investments	1,214,000	¥2.6b	37.16%	0.01%
1.65%	abrdn plc	533,900	¥1.2b	-1.82%	0.01%
1.6%	The Vanguard Group, Inc.	518,124	¥1.1b	0%	no data
1.5%	Norges Bank Investment Management	483,508	¥1.1b	0%	no data
1.45%	Nomura Asset Management Co., Ltd.	468,200	¥1.0b	-6.21%	no data
1.39%	Shiozumi Asset Management Co., Ltd.	450,000	¥981.9m	0%	0.82%
1.37%	SBI Asset Management Co., Ltd.	441,600	¥963.6m	0%	0.22%
1.27%	Columbia Management Investment Advisers, LLC	409,900	¥894.4m	0%	no data
1.18%	Daiwa Asset Management Co. Ltd.	382,600	¥834.8m	-4.97%	0.01%
1.18%	Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group Inc., Asset Management Arm	380,900	¥831.1m	0%	0.02%
1.16%	Norway	374,891	¥818.0m	6.44%	no data
1.05%	Wasatch Advisors Inc	339,400	¥740.6m	0%	0.03%
0.97%	Reiichi Sasaki	312,900	¥682.7m	0%	no data
0.78%	Dimensional Fund Advisors LP	253,152	¥552.4m	1.27%	no data
0.74%	Massachusetts Financial Services Company	240,100	¥523.9m	-11.37%	no data
0.66%	BlackRock, Inc.	214,100	¥467.2m	4.9%	no data
0.61%	Nikko Asset Management Co., Ltd.	195,800	¥427.2m	-15.05%	no data
0.37%	Fidelity International Ltd	118,064	¥257.6m	0.93%	no data
0.31%	Wellington Management Group LLP	100,500	¥219.3m	0%	no data
0.3%	Mitsubishi UFJ Kokusai Asset Management Co., Ltd.	96,400	¥210.3m	10.8%	no data
0.22%	Quaestio Capital Management SGR S.p.A Unipersonale	72,300	¥157.8m	0%	0.07%
0.22%	Neuberger Berman Investment Advisers LLC	70,000	¥152.7m	0%	no data
0.19%	SPARX Asset Management Co., Ltd.	59,900	¥130.7m	0%	0.05%

Ticker	Exchange	Primary Security	Security Type	Country	Currency	Listed on
2491	TSE (The Tokyo Stock Exchange)	Yes	Common Stock	JP	JPY	Jul 2006
VCCL.F	OTCPK (Pink Sheets LLC)	Yes	Common Stock	US	USD	Jul 2006

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/09/27 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/09/27 00:00
Earnings	2022/06/30
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31